It's been five weeks since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The conflict threatens to stretch out for months; a resolution is murky. Nonetheless, we have learned several important lessons:
1.Putin is a thug. Out here on the Left Coast we never had high expectations for Vladimir Putin. We knew that he came out of the Soviet KGB and heard rumors that he was a "kleptocrat," reportedly the richest man in Europe ( Click Here). We didn't trust Vlad. We believed that he contrived to get Donald Trump elected in 2016.
We thought Putin was immoral but smart. When it looked like he was going to invade Ukraine, we worried, "Poor Ukraine. Russia will roll over them in a few days."
We forgot that thugs often start out wily but then get overconfident -- inflated with hubris. Thugs surround themselves with sycophants. They start believing their own B.S.
Putin got cocky. He thought Ukraine and NATO would roll over if he acted tough. He confused brutality with guile. As a result, Putin got Russia into a war it cannot win. Now he is scrambling to find a way out that "saves face." It's not clear what that is.
2. Ukraine isn't going to roll over. What's become obvious is that Putin underestimated Ukraine's military capabilities. Putin's initial objective was to quickly occupy Ukraine's four largest cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Lviv. That's not going to happen.
Putin underestimated Ukraine and most of us over-estimated Russia. Most Ukrainians would rather fight to the death than be occupied by Russians. Given what we've seen in the last five weeks, the Ukrainian attitude makes sense: Russia has been brutal with civilians.
Russia has more missiles and bombs than Ukraine does. But Ukraine has proven superior at ground combat. It appears that the Ukrainian communication and logistical systems are better than those of the Russians. For example, it appears that the Russian attack on Kyiv stalled because there was poor communication among the Russian troops and they ran out of supplies.
3. It's difficult to find middle ground. Russia has agreed to hold "peace talks" with Ukraine; they're beeing held in Turkey. Russia has suggested a "lull" in the fighting; they would pull back from Kyiv and concentrate on solidifying their gains in the east, in the Donbas region. There's no reason to believe the Russians are doing anything more than stopping to resupply their troops.
Ukraine would agree to "neutrality" but wants a return of the areas of Ukraine that Russia has seized. Russia won't agree to that. Russia wants the economic sanctions to end; NATO won't agree to that until Ukraine's demands are met.
It's hard to see how there can be a quick negotiated settlement. Putin needs to save face and that's not possible.
4.There are important consequences of a protracted conflict:
a. Food: Russia exports fertilizer, and grain to the West. These exports will stop as well as Ukrainian agricultural exports. The cessation of Ukrainian agricultural exports will create a food crisis in the Mediterranean region.
Writing in Common Dreams, Steven Devereux (Click Here) observed: "Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe, and Russia and Ukraine have both become major food exporters in recent years. In 2020 these two countries accounted for one third of the world's wheat trade and one quarter of the world's barley trade. Ukraine alone exported 15 percent of the world's maize and half of all sunflower oil traded globally." The war will drive up food prices.
b. Energy: A total blockade of Russia will create a fuel crisis in Europe. Some EU members are extremely dependent upon Russian gas; for example, Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, and Poland. There is no quick solution for these countries. (For example, Germany has no port suitable for the processing of liquid natural gas.) At the moment, Germany and Austria have ordered fuel rationing; they are preparing for Russia to stop sending gas through the pipelines.
Russia is demanding that EU countries pay for Russian gas in roubles (Click Here). The EU countries seem unlikely to do this. The war will drive up energy prices.
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