Either way, in 1999, the last time the poll was held, close to 24,000 voters showed up. This election cycle the Republican loyalists barely showed up for this event. We know that politicians tend to reverse predict, to undersell expectation so they won't look bad when they underperform. If that were the case here, did the Republicans really expect 50 or 60 thousand? The fact is, the real numbers were so much lower.
Can we expect this to be a national pattern? Willl Republican stalwarts become no-shows nation-wide? Are they so disgusted with the the choices they have, so sick of the old, tired messages and policies and burned out by the war?
Iowa demonstrated some very interesting symptoms that ought to hearten the Democrats.
For example, you would think that the front-runners would have pulled at least two percent of the vote, even without showing up, if the voters were enthusiastic about supporting them. Apparently, the Iowa Republicans were more into rewarding those who fed them and gave them face time.
But these questions are "tree" questions when the real "forest" question is why so much regard is given to an event that only represents under 11,000 votes? Why does the NY Times give Romney a "significant win" when he had under 5,000 people vote for him in a whole state? And why does this silly event, where everyone pays $35 to vote, and over 20% of those who pay to vote don't even vote-- they apparently go for the free food and entertainment-- predict, so effectivley GOP winners? I can answer the last one-- it's because not people, not voters, but MONEY decides who wins the Republican primary race... and probably, the Democratic primary race too. That's bad for democracy, bad for America.
Some interesting extra tidbits on the Iowa Straw Poll, voting integrity-wise, from Citizens for Legit gov:
Romney Leadership Team Member Overseeing Straw Poll By Birdlady 09 Aug 2007 The Iowa GOP is facing possible suit over their use of the same Diebold machines that were just de-certified. They are claiming of course, that there is nothing to worry about since the voting procedure will be conducted with the assistance and oversight of the Story County Auditor's Office. If we look here, we see the Story County Auditor is Mary Mosiman. Mary Mosiman also happens to be on Mitt Romney's "Romney for President [Story County] Leadership Team"... It's also worth noting that according to this article, Romney's Commonwealth PAC gave State Auditor David A. Vaudt $1,000 in 2004.
Voting Machine Malfunction Causes Delay 11 Aug 2007 The results of the Iowa Republican Straw poll have been delayed for more than an hour tonight as officials recount about 1,500 ballots from one 'voting' machine. Mary Tiffany, a spokeswoman for the Republican Party of Iowa, said officials were forced to count ballots by hand after one of the 'voting' machines malfunctioned while tabulating. Optical scan ballots � not punch cards � are being used in this non-binding straw poll.
Judge Refuses to Stop Iowa Straw Poll 11 Aug 2007 A federal judge on Friday refused to issue an injunction to stop the Iowa Straw Poll after a lawsuit was filed over the constitutionality of the 'voting' process used at the event. "In the absence of some legal violation, the Republican Party can run their (event) however they want," Judge James Gritzner said in his decision, which quickly followed the hearing because the straw poll was scheduled to start Saturday morning. The lawsuit was filed late Thursday, and the judge said there wasn't adequate notice given to the defendants, who were served early Friday morning. The defendants included State Auditor David Vaudt, Story County Commissioner of Elections [Romney troll] Mary Mosiman and Republican Party Chairman Ray Hoffmann.
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