The recent earthquake swarms at Yellowstone's "Super Volcano" are the longest spate of these swarms to hit Yellowstone in recent memory. The USGS is downplaying these earthquake swarms as "normal," and it's possible they are. The truth is that our knowledge of Super Volcanoes is extremely limited; there has not been an eruption of a Super Volcano in recorded history, and as dangerous as this phenomena is (Super Volcanoes), there is no established scientific record that scientists can use to properly evaluate whether or not an eruption is eminent.
In my opinion, there is something different about the current activity at Yellowstone. The vast majority of the current activity is centered in a very tightly constrained area; furthermore, when magma rises, the subsequent heating and breaking of rock causes earthquake swarms like the ones recorded at Yellowstone. Over the past century, this particular area at Yellowstone has experienced a substantial amount of "uplift;" i.e., the ground is actually bulging upward and is demonstrating that Yellowstone appears to be active rather than in a period of dormancy. There is no scientific evidence that these earthquake swarms are indicative of a pending eruption, and it would be irresponsible to predict, as many have, that a catastrophic eruption of Yellowstone's Super Volcano is eminent.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a minor eruption at this specific location. These earthquake swarms began at a depth of approximately 10 kilometers and lately, they are much closer to the surface. Please note this comprehensive chart of the current swarms that began on January 17th, 2010:
For those of you following Yellowstone (I think there might be a few of you), I've plotted up the earthquakes since 1/27 (see below) and sure enough, although there is a lot of scatter, they are getting shallower however what this exactly means is unclear. You can see my plots from 1/22-28 here. As many of you have mentioned, a caldera like Yellowstone is a big interconnected system, so a solely tectonic source of this is still possible as the displacement migrates through the fractured caldera rocks.
This all being said, YVO's current status statement still reads:
" At this time, YVO scientists and their collaborators have detected no anomalous ground deformation, strain, or increased thermal activity that could indicate precursory activity to phenomena such as steam explosions or volcanic eruptions. As such, the Volcanic Alert Level remains at Normal (Aviation Color Code of Green)."So, again, without abundant evidence to suggest otherwise, the swarm has shown no indications that this is magma related. The earthquakes are shallower right now, but again, we need to look at this information with an abundance of caution. YVO posted yesterday a summary of the current earthquake swarm and an brief history of swarms to put this one in context along with a description of all the monitoring that occurs at Yellowstone so if you are concerned about the swarm, be sure to check it out. This caldera is not solely a magmatic feature the process of caldera-forming itself involves breaking the crust along a ring fracture. This means that the area is littered with thousands (millions?) of fault systems related to the caldera. Trust me, I'd be fascinated by the idea that a new dome might be erupting at Yellowstone (i.e., NOT A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION), which is the mostly likely scenario, but until the evidence tells me otherwise, this doesn't look like it. LINK
It is extremely important to note that Yellowstone's Super Volcano has experienced what can be categorized as "minor eruptions," the most recent of which occurred approximately 70,000 years ago:
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
Since the most recent giant caldera-forming eruption, 640,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. Some of the eruptions were approximately the size of the devastating 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, and several were much larger. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau, occurred 70,000 years ago. USGS
When I describe a "minor" eruption of the Yellowstone Super Volcano, it's important to understand that it is minor in comparison to a cataclysmic, extinction level event associated with a major eruption of Yellowstone; a minor eruption, based on past eruptions at Yellowstone, could still cause immeasurable destruction and it's effect could still wreck havoc on the surrounding area via pyroclastic flows and ash which could cover the Great Plains and surrounding areas with volcanic ash, depending on the severity of the eruption. (But not nearly as deep as a major eruption")
Yellowstone does present a clear and present danger to the United States and the global community, and whether or not an eruption, major or minor, will occur in the foreseeable future is nothing more than a matter of speculation. I have written this brief synopsis on the danger of Yellowstone's Super Volcano to clarify the actual danger as opposed to the innumerable conspiracy theories that abound on the Internet. I have noted there are a huge amount of Internet searches in regard an eruption that supposedly with occur this month. There is indisputable evidence that earthquake and volcanic activity is increasing throughout the world, possibly caused by climate change.
I do believe and agree that the USGS and the government are not telling the public all that they suspect or know in regard Yellowstone and devastating earthquakes that have recently impacted various parts of the world. That said, whatever they think they know is still a matter of speculation, and unless these event have been caused by HAARP or other such facilities owned by foreign governments (There are over seventeen [17] such facilities worldwide.), even they do not have the ability to predict earthquakes or volcanic activity unless they are caused by the aforementioned facilities.
I also believe that it is unconscionable to create panic or predict doom and gloom pertaining to events that even the most brilliant scientists have historically been unable to predict. We do need to understand that climate change may be directly related to these events, and it is wise to store enough food, water and medicines to ensure your family's survival should disaster strike in your area. To do nothing risks your survival, but to overreact and panic because people are predicting events that have no scientific basis or supporting facts is extremely counter productive and only adds to the climate of fear that seems to be pervasive within the American public.
William Cormier
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