Chart courtesy of Greg Kilcup, Peter Peckarsky, and Ron Baiman.
Figure 13 below illustrates the McGinty UEP PA analysis conveyed in Figure 9, line 13. The normal distribution bell curve is centered around McGinty's 50.0% PA UEP share and has a 1.3% SD (or approximate "width") as calculated in Figure 9. Based on this SD the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) displayed in the graph ranges from 47.5% to 52.5% as shown in Figure 9. This implies that there was a 95% chance that McGInty's PA VC would fall within this range due to statistical sampling error. The blue area over the CI under the bell curve distribution contains 95% of the total area under the bell curve. As shown in Figure 9 McGinty's reported PA VC of 47.2% is below the lower end of the CI, showing a statistically significant VC discrepancy with her UEP that would be expected to occur by chance only 1.50% of the time, or less than a 1 in 66 chance.
Figure 13: Illustration of McGinty Statistical UEP Analysis
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