Chart courtesy of Greg Kilcup, Peter Peckarsky, and Ron Baiman.
Figure 7 below illustrates the Trump UEP FL analysis conveyed in Figure 4, line 13. The normal distribution bell curve is centered around Trump's 46.4% FL UEP share and has a 1.0% SD (or approximate "width") as calculated in Figure 4. Based on this SD the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) displayed in the graph ranges from 44.4% to 48.4% as shown in Figure 4. This implies that there was a 95% chance that Trump's FL VC would fall within this range due to statistical sampling error. The blue area over the CI under the bell curve distribution contains 95% of the total area under the bell curve. As shown in Figure 7 Trump's reported FL VC of 49.1% is above the upper end of the CI, showing a statistically significant VC discrepancy with his UEP that would be expected to occur by chance only 0.4468% of the time, or less than a 1 in 224 chance. Moreover, as was noted on p. 2, this is most likely an underestimate of the odds as the FL UEP was probably already partially adjusted to match the VC due to FL crossing two time zones.
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