"Mr. Tetlock's analysis is about political judgment but equally relevant to economic and commercial assessments," Kay writes. "Harry Truman famously sought a one-armed economist, who would never say: 'On the one hand, then on the other.' Broadcast media look for snappy sound-bites. Corporate executives demand 'the elevator pitch' for new ideas. Fund managers want specific forecasts. Business audiences do not want to hear that the world is a complex and uncertain place. But, unfortunately, it is. ... Political hedgehogs invade Iraq, business hedgehogs go to China and financial hedgehogs hype the new economy. ... The cult of the heroic CEO, which invites us to believe all characteristics required for great leadership and good judgment can be found in a few exceptional individuals, flies in the face of psychological research as well as long experience."
In addition to calling attention to the application of Tetlock's work to matters economic and commercial, I would also add that these tools are applicable to the duties of judges and lawyers, although this is not a work likely to be studied by the four hedgehogs currently residing on the U.S. Supreme Court, better known as Justices Scalia, Thomas, and Alito and Chief Justice Roberts. Hedgehogs, by nature, do not like learning of their hedgehogness. After reading Tetlock's startling material, let us be satisfied that we no longer have a hedgehog in the Oval Office.
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