Anders Tengall, the country's chief epidemiologist, is making a grim wager. The hypothesis is there will not be significantly more Swedes dead at the end of the pandemic than if the country had initiated stricter distancing protocols, but the looser approach will keep the number of cases from spiking when lockdowns are lifted.
Tengall's and the rest of the Swedish government's bet is this approach is more sustainable, and can help prevent some of those other bad health outcomes that accompany economic depression." ("Sweden and Singapore: The COVID-19 'Soft' Approach vs. Techno-Surveillance", MedicineNet)
So, yes, the number of deaths per thousand in Sweden do not compare favorably to nearby Denmark, but the final results of the experiment might not be known for years. With a population of 5.8 million, Denmark's death-toll is currently 336, while Sweden's is 1,400 for a population of 10.2 million. (as of 4-17-20) So, as a practical matter, the Swedish method looks vastly inferior. (Interestingly, Sweden's population is similar to NY City's 8.4 million, but coronavirus deaths in NYC have now reached a horrific 12,822.)
But there's more to this story than mere data-points or the latest grim statistics. Here's a clip from the LA Times that helps to connect the dots:
"Tegnell" insists that Sweden's approach still seems to make sense, though he also acknowledges that the world is in uncharted territory with the virus. He argues that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection spike that Denmark might face once its lockdown is lifted.
"I think both Norway and Denmark are now very concerned about how you stop this complete lockdown in a way so you don't cause this wave to come immediately when you start loosening up," he said. He said authorities know that the physical distancing Swedes are engaging in works, because officials have recorded a sudden end to the flu season and to a winter vomiting illness." ("Sweden sticks to 'low-scale' lockdown despite rise in coronavirus deaths'", LA Times)
The Swedish plan will continue to be criticized by public health experts who think that their draconian recommendations should be fully-implemented without the slightest deviation, but it could turn out that the Swedish model is not only vastly superior to the other courses of action but, ultimately, the only real option for countries that want to save lives but avoid a permanently-hobbled and severely-depressed economy.
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