On the contrary, this analysis is based on recorded votes which the naysayers always claim correctly portray the electorate since there is no such thing as election fraud. They will have to find another way to refute the late vote anomaly.
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never considered this powerful analytical modeling tool? Or is it because they know it would produce results that they would rather not talk about?
In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.
Base case assumptions:
1. Obama had a 58% True Share in 2008, equal to his state exit poll aggregate share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model.
Note: he led by 61-37% in the National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).
2. Obama's (2-party) 59% share of new voters is equal to his 2008 exit poll share. He had 73% of new voters (2-party) in 2008.
There are two sets of scenarios:
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