"Russia is likely experiencing a shortage of appropriate reconnaissance UAVs for this task, which is exacerbated by limitations in its domestic manufacturing capacity resulting from sanctions."
Russia's Orion UAV
The main problem with the British assessment, however, is that it hasn't withstood the test of time, which is the ultimate discriminator when it comes to the quality of intelligence analysis. "Reconnaissance Strike," it seems, is alive and well and living in Ukraine, courtesy of the very tool - the Orion medium-altitude, long-duration UAV - tested in Syria since 2019.
While the Ukrainian air defense forces appear to have shot down an Orion UAV on April 7, the system continues to fly over Ukraine, providing critical reconnaissance and strike capability for the Russians.
The Orion, it seems, has been very effective in tracking down the various heavy weapons - French-made Caesar howitzers, U.S.-made M777 howitzers, and HIMARS rocket systems - that have been provided to Ukraine in an effort to help reverse Ukrainian military fortunes on the battlefield. U.S. officials deny that any HIMARS systems have been destroyed by Russia. The Orion has also been used to great effect to strike other targets as well.
Russia has also made extensive (and effective) use of "loitering UAVs" " "suicide drones" "in Ukraine. Two models in wide use are both made by a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov arms factory. These UAVs, the KUB and the Lancett-3, are state of the art, capable of autonomous targeting (i.e., they seek out targets by themselves) and are ubiquitous over the Ukrainian battlefield.
The British intelligence assessment, echoed in turn by the U.S. intelligence, and national security establishment, was and is flat-out wrong. But what makes the error even more egregious is that neither intelligence service, the U.K. nor the U.S., seemed bothered by trying to at least craft a logical narrative to back-up their erroneous claims.
The Iranian drones that were imaged by U.S. satellites at Kashan air base - the Shahid-129 and Shahid-191 - are both derivatives of U.S. UAV technology, and do not in any way, shape, or form advance Russia's demonstrated UAV prowess. The Russian drones are newer and more advanced than the drones alleged to have been demonstrated by Iran.
Moreover, the Russia drones have been built according to Russian needs and specifications and adapted to developing Russian UAV doctrine that has been extensively tested under combat conditions in Syria.
By all indications, Russia has readily adapted both the doctrine and the weapons systems involved to the new realities of the Ukrainian battlefield. Unless Russia was facing a catastrophic shortfall in the availability of drones (and no hard evidence has been provided by either the U.K. or U.S. to sustain such a premise), there is absolutely no reason for the Russian Ministry of Defense to undertake a crash program to acquire foreign-made UAVs that could not be readily integrated into the operational forces of the Russian military under combat conditions.
Then there is the issue of verification of the U.S. claims. For its part, Iran has denied the American allegations, with Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian declaring that while Iran has "defense agreements with Russia," it "will not help any of the parties involved in this conflict," which includes providing weapons to either side.
For its part, Russia has remained characteristically silent on the issue, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov noting, prior to Putin's arrival in Tehran, that the Russian president would not be discussing Iranian drones while in Iran.
So, what is behind the Russian interest in Iranian drones? The answer may lie in their U.S. origins. As the U.S. increases the scope and scale of its military assistance to Ukraine, and as Russia confronts the all-too-real possibility of a wider conflict in Europe where its forces would be compelled to face off against U.S.-manufactured drone technology, Russia would be foolish not to take advantage of its improving ties with Iran to gain invaluable insights into U.S. drone technology, as well as how Iran has adapted this technology to the modern battlefield, to include successful operations against U.S.-designed air defense systems.
This scenario makes far more sense that the fanciful "Russia is losing the drone war" narrative being pushed by U.S. and British intelligence and parroted without any real effort at anything that remotely resembles sound analysis by the compliant stenographers in the mainstream Western media. All any reporter had to do was ask the Ukrainian military about what was happening all along the frontlines in Ukraine, or at least, ask those who had not been killed at the hands of Russia's very dangerous, and very active, UAV force.
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