Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered a scathing rebuke to Trump's strategy -- with no teleprompter, essentially qualifying him as an ignoramus; "I invite the President to better read history and geography," as well as understand "international ethics."
Once again; the Trump strategy sidesteps the JCPOA, relentlessly plugging instead a pile-up of allegations of Iran's "malign behavior"; the ballistic missile program (outside the scope of the JCPOA); the support for Damascus; the support for Hezbollah; and the wider role of the IRGC.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin may have not crossed the red line -- explicitly declaring the IRGC as a terrorist group; he claimed the IRGC has "played a central role to Iran becoming the world's foremost state sponsor of terror." Follow the money; the Treasury sanctions speak louder than any rhetorical artifice.
Although the Pentagon has been firmly against it, fearing blowback all across the Middle East, this has been a neocon wet dream for nearly two decades; to have the IRGC placed as equivalent to al-Qaeda and ISIS/Daesh. In realpolitik terms, this gambit ranks with "proving" that al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein were partners pre-2003. And still runs the risk of being interpreted by the IRGC as a declaration of war. All it takes is a lethal encounter between a US vessel and IRGC navy speedboats patrolling the Persian Gulf (which for Trump is the "Arabian Gulf") for all hell to break loose.
The IRGC has been an integral part of the "4+1" alliance (Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq plus Hezbollah) that for all practical purposes prevented Syria from becoming a Takfiristan. The IRGC has also been fighting ISIS/Daesh on the ground in Iraq with key advisers and military commanders.
IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari -- usually a cordial, soft-spoken man but tough as nails, with combat experience in the Iran-Iraq war -- has made it very clear; "If the news is correct about the stupidity of the American government in considering the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, then the Revolutionary Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State [ISIS] all around the world."
Watch the caravan
Trump's Terminator strategy will firebomb moderates in Iran, starting with Rouhani and Zarif, and play right into Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's instincts; from the very beginning of the JCPOA negotiations, he said that the Americans cannot be trusted.
Rouhani's scathing rebuke to Trump should be seen in the context of his coalition winning three major elections in Iran since the JCPOA went into effect; parliamentary, presidential and for the Council of Experts (where most hardcore clerics lost their seats).
It's now impossible for moderates to expect any possible entente cordiale with Washington anytime soon. What they must deal with is Western companies and banks under further certified pressure to do business with Iran -- to the detriment of Rouhani's economic agenda.
Trump was personally advised by unindicted war criminal Henry Kissinger earlier last week -- even before a meeting in the White House Situation Room with Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Joseph Dunford centered on North Korean "aggression."
Divide and Rule precedents point to Kissinger's advice. He's fully aware a frontal Washington attack against Russia or China -- the strategic partnership at the heart of Eurasia integration -- is a non-starter. The next best option is to raise trouble in their borderlands -- North Korea is especially well positioned for it -- and go after the weakest Eurasia link; Iran.
And yet both Moscow and Beijing will continue to do business with Iran as a key hub for Eurasia integration; linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); a future member of the SCO; and also linked to the North-South Transportation Corridor and India's own incipient maritime Silk Road centered on Chabahar port. Iran will continue to do solid business with the rest of Asia -- especially Japan and South Korea. Iran and Qatar may eventually become natural gas providers to Europe in the next decade. And Iran will continue to be -- alongside Russia and China -- at the forefront of bypassing the US dollar in energy trade.
The dogs of war bark and the Eurasia integration caravan passes.
And then, there's the devastating clincher. The absolute majority of the Global South now has definitive proof; Washington simply cannot be trusted to keep its promises related to any major geopolitical deal. The possibility of a nuclear agreement -- or any agreement -- between Washington and Pyongyang is now less than zero.
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