Part 2 – What Should The U.S. Do?
With his appointment by Cuba’s National Assembly yesterday to “officially” replace Fidel Castro as President, Raul Castro’s subsequent statement made it clear who will (still) be pulling the strings in Cuba. Yesterday’s AP report on the selection noted ”The new president proposed consulting with the ailing 81-year-old Fidel on all major decisions of state, and parliament approved the proposal”.
As most expected, and now confirmed that Fidel Castro will still be the power behind the throne, there is still much the U.S. can do as respects establishing a Cuban engagement plan. One encompassing both a “Fidel driven Raul” now and a successor “Raul driven Raul” plan upon Fidel’s death.
That sequential engagement plan should cater to Raul Castro’s interest in self preservation, itself a function of the people’s interest to a return to the pre-revolution glory days of capitalism and wealth generation, absent the corruption of course. He totally lacks Fidel’s charisma and legend and therefore will need to rely more on compromise for survival. In fact, it’s hard to see any sibling resemblance whatsoever, whether physically or persona wise. The contrast in “command presence” between the two in all respects is striking. Raul is anything but a Fidel clone, making his leadership challenge that much more difficult.
A lifting of the almost 5 decade old embargo is something both brothers crave and can now be a more leverage-able negotiation tool for Cuban political, social and economic changes. It would however, be naïve to think Raul Castro will ever fully dismiss communism for democracy. However, his to be adopted brand of Commulism, unlike the Chinese, may be one the U.S. and WEAST (U.S. WEst and eAST allies) can take advantage of. The embargo lifting being a key chip to drive Raul to implement substantive reforms his brother refuses and will never do. That chip though is likely not playable until Fidel is gone, meaning the embargo will continue as long as he does.
The question then being how can the U.S. and WEAST leverage this interim softening to exploit Cuba’s substantive geo-political connections and influence throughout the globe, to their advantage, turning Cuba from Cold War political enemy and liability to future political/economic asset. In particular, how then to leverage Cuba’s leadership in the global “non-aligned movement” to in fact achieve better alignment with those nations the U.S./WEAST need to but can’t without a door opener like Cuba.
Putting that in perspective, and the “influence play” potential with Cuba, note that Cuba was the principal architect in the construct and launch of the NAM – “Non-Aligned Movement” in Havana. That group was officially born under the “Havana Declaration of 1979”. Fidel Castro was NAM’s first President and interestingly in Sept. 2006, re-elected for a second term. Even more intriguing, was the subsequent assignment of Raul Castro as Acting NAM President until Fidel Castro recovers from his illness, which again, now appears unlikely. Again, putting Raul as Acting NAM President was another way for Fidel to begin to up profile Raul to allies and the world; another step in securing a power base .
In other words, Cuba has (better) access and/or (better) influence to/on many nations the U.S. either needs to better and/or start embracing, and Raul is now “Chairman of the Board” or gatekeeper so to speak of this group. He’s stealthily emerging as a potential major power player. Cuba’s (Raul’s) value then is as a door opener or strategic “influence play”, a de-facto global lobbyist, noting as of 2007, the NAM comprised an astounding 118 nations.
An emerging opportunity here for the U.S. and WEAST to constructively put the past behind and temper/remove one of the United States’ legacy, disproportionately time consuming thorns to create a vastly improved relationship situation and the “global access benefits” that would flow accordingly. Of course, this collaboration would not be at the expense or cost of ever endorsing any aspect of Cuba’s communism ideology, regardless of whatever form or remainder exists post Fidel.
Bottom line, Fidel learned from Alexander on preserving the past. The U.S. and WEAST now have an opportunity to learn to work with Raul in helping to fundamentally transform Cuba from threat to constructive geographical neighbor in the future.
It’s in the U.S., WEAST, Cuban people and Raul’s interest to do so.
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