This will be short and sweet.
The press and all other news/analyst sources are speculating the 300 or so truck Russian "humanitarian convoy" is the Trojan horse (TH). It is. But not the TH they think. Speculation being the convoy/truck contents and/or driver personal are military related and those being the TH. Rather, it's not convoy contents/personnel, but the unarmed convoy itself.
Mr. Putin is not an obvious sort of fellow, so here's the more stealthily shrewd desired Russian TH scenario IMO. The Russians go through the "we're a bunch of really good caring guys" motions to prove the vehicles are not carrying military weapons and/or gear and in fact, are loaded with nothing but humanitarian aid and finally directly proven and agreed as such by Ukraine and the Red Cross. This endorsement is absolutely critical for the later real convoy TH trigger.
The contentious convoy negotiations between Ukraine, Red Cross and Russia finally validate Russian claims and yield an ok from Ukraine to proceed, even under Ukraine guard. Again, with Ukraine and the Red Cross now on record as validating it is "unarmed" and "humanitarian" only. Again, being validated by Ukraine and Red Cross as "unarmed" is absolutely key here and to Russian plan.
The convoy then gets clearance to proceed to the front line war torn and heavy active fighting cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. It then moves to these cities and gets well established in each.
THEN...a few "intentional" rounds (from rebels) hit the convoy trucks in each city, with Russia quickly claiming government forces attacked the "unarmed" convoy. Russia then uses an attack on an "unarmed" humanitarian truck convoy as a pretext to invade to save its "defenseless and unarmed convoy".
Message to Ukraine, don't fall into the Ghenghis Khan "I'm here to help you" trap/mistake. Instead, end the "humanitarian truck convoy" discussion immediately and tell Mr. Putin "thanks but (absolutely) no thanks...keep your aid".
(Article changed on August 17, 2014 at 14:39)
(Article changed on August 17, 2014 at 15:08)
