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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 8/26/22

Flawed Estimates of Russian and Ukrainian Military Casualties

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Walter Uhler
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Seldom, however, do these institutes or government agencies provide their pro-Ukrainian mouthpieces with estimates of Ukrainian soldiers killed and injured. Why? Because both the sources and the mouthpieces are actively involved in pro-Ukrainian information warfare. Even if they were to undertake the types of speculation they routinely make about Russian casualties, they would be under immense pressure to undercount Ukrainian casualties, lest high numbers suggest an inability to continue the war and, thus, undermine western support for that war.

Are there such high numbers? Yes. On 13 August, Scott Ritter estimated that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed among the at least 191,000 casualties that its army has suffered. On August 24th, the blogger at Moon of Alabama posted a leaked document, supposedly from Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, that states that, by 1 July, 76,640 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed. Of course, that document could be a fake. Both figures are staggering. Yet, even the Kviv Post reported on 1 June, quoting President Zelensky, that "As many as 700 men Ukrainian soldiers are dying or being wounded every day."

Anyone who watches/listens to the YouTube Military Summary channel on a daily basis would find such figures plausible. It repeatedly reports on the slow, methodical, assault on virtually impenetrable fortified positions -- erected by the Ukrainian military over the past eight years -- by the Russian Army and allied forces. Across the entire 1,200 kilometer front line, Russian artillery shellings outnumber Ukrainian by approximately five to one. They have used massive artillery barrages to turn these fortifications into rubble and subject its occupants to a meat grinder. Thus, one would expect Ukrainian military casualties to far outnumber Russian casualties.

On at least four occasions, Ukraine has provided its own estimates of the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed. In mid-March, President Zelensky announced that 1,300 Ukrainians had been killed in less than a month of war. As mentioned above, the Kviv Post reported on 1 June, that Zelensky asserted that "As many as 700 men Ukrainian soldiers are dying or being wounded every day" That's a casualty rate of some 21,000 per month! Although it seems unlikely that such a high casualty rate would continue month after month, if only 200 of those 700 daily casualties were deaths, that would amount to an unsustainable 6,000 deaths per month. Nevertheless, in mid-June, a spokesman for Zelensky claimed that approximately 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the war. Then, in late August, after two more months of war, Ukraine reduced that figure to (only) 9,000 soldiers killed.

Unfortunately, America's pro-Ukrainian news mouthpieces breathlessly rushed to report that improbable news, rather than attempt to ascertain Walter Lippmann's "truth" about Ukrainian military casualties.

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Walter C. Uhler is an independent scholar and freelance writer whose work has been published in numerous publications, including The Nation, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Journal of Military History, the Moscow Times and the San (more...)
 
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