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Israel faces 'catastrophic defeat' in next Hezbollah War", IDF officials say.

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Franklin P. Lamb
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The report insists that the five-year Gideon Plan which is supposed to prepare the army for the next war, appears to have devolved into an admission by the IDF itself that it has been preparing over the past couple of decades for the wrong war against Hezbollah. It argues that Israel must prepare differently and that there is an urgent need for a changed strategy for the army next time against Hezbollah as well as for a plan that will destroy the many threats from Iran that the army predicts it will have to face sooner rather than later. According to the report:

"The arming and force building pace is derived from the options and doesn't always solve the gaps in different areas that the committee discovered in its work. There are a number of critical fields which require adjustments in the force building pace, even at the expense of other abilities."

The subcommittee's central criticism revolves around the fact that the military determined its own needs for the multi-year plan, rather than the political leadership dictating to the army what it needs to do. The report was positive about a few elements of the implementation of the Gideon Plan, but identified serious problems with IDF plans to execute the next war with Hezbollah. The report claimed that while Israel's military has succeeded in crafting an impressive fighting force, it does not always prepare itself adequately for the correct mission. The report reads in part; 'The arming and force building pace is derived from the options and does not solve the gaps in different areas that the committee examined. There are a number of critical fields which require adjustments in the IDF building pace, even at the expense of other abilities."

The subcommittee also noted other shortcomings in the Gideon Plan, notably that it does not include the "tectonic shift" of Russia's dramatic return to the region. "What can we do, what do we want, what are our options in the coming Hezbollah war?"

These are reportedly among the criticisms increasingly being voiced by many in Israel's military establishment and among key political decision makers that need to be made quickly in light of fast moving events in the Middle East. All suggesting that other significant fronts may be created by Hezbollah and Iran in Syria, forcing Israel to fight in several arenas simultaneously.

Meanwhile, mainly out of concern for Lebanon's fate once Israel begins saturation bombing, several of Lebanon's "leaders" have or soon will visit the Kingdom for the purpose of strategizing ways to confront Hezbollah and Iran. The former they consider is simply a foreign militia implanted by the latter, a claimed hegemonic regime in Tehran some in Lebanon's government believe is hastily careening toward its own revolution. To date, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Kataeb Party chief Samir Gemayel (both parties having participated directly in the 1982 Sabra-Shatila Massacre slaughter), Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Druze leader MP Walid Jumblat, and anti-Iran/Hezbollah former minister, Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi. Others are planning visits.

Some of the visitors are seeking yet another 'coalition' to confront what they claim are Iran's projects to control the region and its threat to Lebanon's sovereignty. This while hoping to message and ultimately persuade Israel not to destroy Lebanon during its planned less than ten day "short war" which some US Pentagon officials have told Congress they believe will be launched just as soon as Israel's military and government can both agree that they are ready.

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Since 2013, Professor Franklin P. Lamb has traveled extensively throughout Syria. His primary focus has been to document, photograph, research and hopefully help preserve the vast and irreplaceable archaeological sites and artifacts in (more...)
 

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