Again, with now familiar recklessness, the possibility that events might well spin out of control seems to have alluded the Bush administration, where the focus this time is on the mechanics of implementing martial law rather than its consequences, even though a failed coup might well result in the arrest, trial, and execution of administration officials for treason. Given the possible detention of at least tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands of US citizens to maintain control on one hand and Bush administration's mortal peril on the other, the resulting struggle will likely exasperate the predicted political and economic destabilization of the United States, and this is why we expect these events, once begun, would likely to include the largest scale acts of repression and insurrection since the US Civil War, during the next several years it will take to resolve the situation into either a fully established police state or restoration of constitutional governance.
Beyond the damage to the US society and infrastructure, the international consequences of such events are really beyond prediction, except it is likely to result in a global boycott of US goods and, in the near term, a wider war in the Middle East as well as an increased lack of US attention to and participation in international efforts to address serious global issues such as climate change along with its related short falls in food and energy production. As a possible alternative, faced with such consequences, including their own impoverishment, the US ruling elites might well turn on the Bush administration upon its declaration of a national emergency, resulting in a swift and far less damaging resolution.
Prognosis Summary:
Our overall assessment remains largely unchanged from our March 10, 2008 report New UN Sanctions Make US-Iran War More Likely:
"The more significant Iran's response or the more disruptive the economic and political consequences, the more likely the attack on Iran would be combined with or be followed by a formal declaration by Bush of a national emergency, possibly affecting US national elections, resulting in a de facto coup d'état and the most serious destabilization of the United States since the civil war. While these risks would normally result in swift dismissal of such a plan of action, unfortunately such an attack on Iran would be consistent with Bush's history of striking out at those who impede or criticize him as well as his willingness to take radical actions because of an apparent failure to appreciate the institutional and systemic costs involved.
While there is some chance of stabilizing the situation early in the sequence of escalating events, this would require the concerted efforts of responsible US, Iranian, and international governing authorities, provided Bush can be persuaded to halt the attacks, the Iranians to limit their response to within their borders, and the rest of the world's governments and populace to respond with sufficient restraint. But history gives small comfort about such a turn of events involving nations with irresponsible leadership and substantial resources."
Taking Action:
These reports are not intended to be an academic exercise, but rather as a warning and a call to create an alternative outcome. One possible alternative to Bush's war with Iran is for every concerned American to contact the US Congress to demand, REPEATEDLY, that Congress do its duty and stop Bush from starting a war with Iran: This government has nothing to fear, except your courage to join in spirit those who stood upon Concord Bridge and fired a shot heard around the world, this time within the law to protect the law itself.
Now is our time to act.
---> Call your representatives in Congress regularly until Congress acts to control Bush by:
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Vote a binding resolution demanding Bush obtain authorization from Congress before any attack on Iran, no matter what the circumstances;
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Restore Posse Comitatus Act by enacting US Senate Bill S.513 and US House bill H.R. 869;
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Repeal the Military Commissions Act of 2006 and restore habeas corpus for all by enacting bill H.R.3835;
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Hold impeachment hearings on Cheney; write to John Conyers, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee to urge hearings be held on House Resolution 333Rep. Kucinich in a speech on the floor of the House of Representatives on November 6, 2007; and, to House Speaker Pelosi to demand she end her "impeachment is off the table" dictum, a de facto suspension of the impeachment clause of the US Constitution; introduced by
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Include in relevant appropriation bills wording such that no funds can be spent for a declared national emergency, except upon a vote of Congress to invoke, if congress is in session, and to continue such emergency only upon a continuing resolution by Congress every 30-days;
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Congress should hold in contempt the head of any department or agency of the executive branch, including the White House, for failing to respond to subpoena; and withhold some or all funds and appointments from those departments, when such subpoena is found to be enforceable by the courts;
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