There is no single dominant grouping in this internal struggle for power. The new � ���"Iraqi army most often behaves as a Shia militia,� �� � and � ���"the last chance for some kind of stability may be the division of Iraq into three nationally based independent states,� �� � Michael Dougall Bell concluded, writing in the Globe and Mail on September 30. Disintegrating regional states into smaller ones on religious, sectarian and ethnic bases has been a pronounced goal of Israeli strategists for too long now to be dismissed as an unrealistic. This writer only can tell how much he was influenced by the Israeli view, given the fact that Bell was a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and former chair of the Donor Committee of the International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq. However, Bell is not a lone voice. The think tank of The Independent Fund for Peace titled its ninth report on Iraq earlier this month, � ���"A Way Out: The Union of Iraqi States.� �� � Dismantling Iraq is now a realistic threat, as never before.
The NRC was grudgingly formed under the pressure of a U.S. and Arab demand to reconcile the sectarian (Shiite) government of al-Maliki and the pro� ��"Iran sectarian regime that brought him to power, with the national and Pan� ��"Arab majority, whose power base is perceived by the U.S. to be Sunni. The Sunnis have been marginalized and bloodily squeezed out of public life and institutions since the U.S.� ��"led invasion in 2003 -- allegedly for being the power base for the pre-invasion regime, but for sectarian reasons over the last seven years. These Sunnis populate the heart of Iraq, the capital of Baghdad, as well as the northern and western provinces, in particular in al-Ramadi, which is the largest in area. It is also the most decisive strategically, because it borders three Arab countries - Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Not surprisingly, this majority was the incubator, and their provinces the bedrock, of the Iraqi national resistance, which so far has deprived the White house from declaring � ���"victory� �� � in Iraq. � ���"I'm not sure we will ever see anyone declare victory in Iraq, because first off, I'm not sure we'll know for 10 years or five years," U.S. Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the top American commander in Iraq, told reporters at a Pentagon briefing on October 1. Disillusioned by the U.S. promises of security, democracy and development as well as by any sectarian bonanza promised by Iran, the Shiite majority in southern Iraq are again recurring to their national and Pan� ��"Arab credentials, and the Islamic� ��"oriented rejection of foreign hegemony, be it U.S. or Iranian, is increasingly contributing to disillusionment both in the south and the north of the country. This paves the way for the Iraqi resistance to expand southward gradually, but determinably.
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Later this year, Washington is reportedly bracing to host an Iraqi national reconciliation conference, to be chaired by Obama himself and attended by several Arab countries, which are expected to use their good offices to convince the Iraqi resistance, mainly led by Baathists, to lay down their arms, and join the � ���"political process� �� � in exchange for a greater role in decision-making "if they are allowed to function as a legitimate political party.� �� � Egyptian the Al-Ahram Weekly reported recently that Joe Biden urged al-Maliki to allow the Ba'athists to regroup into a new party and run in the elections scheduled for early next year.
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