The sanctions are as if they wish to punish Russia for something or other, not just Ukrainian interventions and activities but obviously larger geopolitical aspirations--its refusal to kowtow, to buckle down to the vision of post-Cold War order which has become dominant in the West, the idea that the West won the Cold War and all of that misleading formulation of the geopolitical situation in world, which of course Ukraine is a victim of.
We saw it over the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. We see it again, and we will see it again after this unless there's a genuine sense for the West to begin to look at itself and say, "We can't just around overthrowing regimes we don't like. We've got to establish a new, inclusive political order, which involves Russia and indeed China and indeed all the other powers instead of establishing new dividing lines within Europe."
One final thing, and that is the fact that what we see in the Ukrainian circus is that the European Union's actions were mischievous and not very helpful at best and indeed very damaging for the country, i.e., Ukraine, that they were intended to save.
I think that everybody needs to step back a minute, not talk about sanctions, not talk about pressure and punishing and so on. Only then could a relatively benign environment be established in which Ukraine can begin to find itself.
Once it's found itself, then it could establish decent relations not just with the West, which goes without saying, but also with its eastern neighbors.
DAVID SPEEDIE: Nicolai, one of the more encouraging preliminary reports I've heard is that Poroshenko is not committed to NATO membership, as some other more extreme elements in Ukraine have pushed, and that he may be ready to assure Russia on a non-bloc status for Ukraine. Is that your understanding?
NICOLAI PETRO: That's certainly what is being said right now. I believe that statement was reiterated by the current foreign minister. But I wouldn't take any of these statements as carved in stone. A lot of water will have to flow under the bridge in terms of actually stabilizing the situation inside Ukraine.
My hope is that there is an ability by the new government to move step-by-step toward a stabilization situation in the East, beginning with a cessation of hostilities.
For that to happen, there has to be at least a suspension of the regime's anti-terrorist operation, then an invitation to dialogue by those who have the arms that are fighting them. If there is goodwill and a cessation of hostilities, I think there is still the opportunity to retain and create a whole and united Ukraine.
But I keep coming back to the notion that the time for this, when these steps need to be taken, is very short.
If instead, the president goes down the route of pursuing a military solution, this will simply accentuate tensions, build hostilities in the East, and make any sort of dialogue and retention of national unity impossible.
DAVID SPEEDIE: In other words, a lot of water has to flow under the bridge, but it has to flow quickly.
NICOLAI PETRO: Exactly. We can't drown in the process.
DAVID SPEEDIE: Before we close, I want to ask a question about a dilemna that's facing Russia and President Putin.
Putin has said that he will deal with the new Ukrianian president Poroshenko even though he may find his policies "unpalatable," but there's another issue here and that is the ultra-nationalist right within Russia itself. The French eminence grise (powerful, behind-the-scenes advisor) of the far-right movement, Alain de Benoist, has recently said that Russia is the last great hope, a bastion against American expansionism. To what extent is that an embarrassment for Putin? And how does he deal with that in terms of his own domestic political situation?
NICOLAI PETRO: As Putin said during one of his recent conferences, "You can't force people to be your friend. If people want to be our friends, they will do so for a variety of reasons. Some of them are purely politically motivated, based on the domestic constituencies and polices that they wish to pursue. Russia wants to be friends with everyone, but those who wish to impose sanctions rather than be friends with us, well, we can't force them to be our friends."
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