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"The one that interested me [Hersh] the most was why don't we build -- we in our shipyard -- build four or five boats that look like Iranian PT boats. Put Navy Seals on them with a lot of arms. And next time one of our boats goes to the Straits of Hormuz, start a shoot-up."
In other words, another Tonkin Gulf-type incident, like the one that President Johnson used to justify a massive escalation in Vietnam.
A modern-day Gulf of Tonkin-like incident in the Strait of Hormuz could be even more problematic, given the waterway's vital role as a supply route for oil tankers necessary for maintaining the world's economy.
The navigable part of the Strait of Hormuz is narrow, and things often go bump in the night without even trying. For example:
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) On the evening of January 8, 2007, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine collided with a Japanese oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's oil supplies travel, officials said. The collision between the USS Newport News and the Japanese-flagged motor vessel Mogamigawa occurred at approximately 10:15 in the evening (local time) in the Strait of Hormuz while the submarine was transiting submerged.
AP, March 20, 2009: "The USS Hartford nuclear submarine and the amphibious USS New Orleans collided in the waters between Iran and the Arabian peninsula today. Fifteen sailors were slightly injured aboard the Hartford"the New Orleans suffered a ruptured fuel tank, spilling 25,000 gallons of diesel".The ships were on routine security patrols in a busy shipping route."
Think back also to the bizarre accounts of the incident involving swarming Iranian motorboats and U.S. naval ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 6, 2008.
Preventing Preventive War
The Persian Gulf would be an ideal locale for Israel to mount a provocation eliciting Iranian retaliation that could, in turn, lead to a full-scale Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear-related sites. Painfully aware of that possible scenario, Adm. Mullen noted at a July 2, 2008 press conference, that military-to-military dialogue could "add to a better understanding" between the U.S. and Iran.
If Mullen's worries are to be taken as genuine (and I believe they are), it would behoove him to resurrect that idea and formally propose such dialogue to the Iranians. He is the U.S. government's senior military officer and should not let himself be stymied by neoconservative partisans more interested in regime change in Tehran than in working out a modus vivendi and reduction of tension.
The following two modest proposals could go a long way toward avoiding an armed confrontation with Iran--whether accidental, or provoked by those who may actually wish to precipitate hostilities and involve the U.S.
1 Establish a direct communications link between top military officials in Washington and Tehran, in order to reduce the danger of accident, miscalculation, or covert attack.
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