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Today's most reliable economic indicators show the downturn is deepening, not abating as deceptive media accounts report. "The SGS (Shadow Government Statistics) alternative measure of GDP suggests (a) 5.9% contraction....versus the official year-to-year" 3.9% figure.
The official estimated annualized Q 2 2009 decline was 1% compared to SGS's figure "in excess of five-percent." Its alternative data show "deeper and more protracted recessions" than officially reported, suggesting a deepening crisis ahead.
The CBO's Grim Forecast
Even the conservative Congressional Budget Office sees a weaker economy ahead, contrary to most consensus views of a sustainable upturn. Its latest projections are as follows:
-- 2010 U-3 unemployment at 10.2%, edging down to 8% by 2011 and 4.8% by 2014;
-- in 2010, 12 million will be underemployed;
-- for the next five years, economic weakness and lower demand will pressure workers with unemployment or underemployment;
-- part-time work only will be available for millions wanting full-time jobs;
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