The
unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Mario Monti, a few weeks before the natural,
constitutionally appointed end of the Legislature, has thrown
The fact
that Monti himself, as he announced in
the course of his end of year press
conference, has become an active participant to the electoral race, although in
a rather unique and indirect way, has certainly not simplified matters. He, in
fact is playing a rather audacious role, trying to appear as a modern-day
Cincinnatus, (or, for that matter, de
Gaulle) waiting to be called to the helm of the Republic.
One of the
many paradoxes in Italy's present political setup is given by the remarkable
influence still being wielded by Professor
Monti, a figure who has never run for office before and who, until now, had been totally absent from the
country's political life.
This confusing
situation has been considered a Godsend by the
more stalwart followers of former
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who, in spite of appearances to the contrary,
and notwithstanding his
self-contradicting remarks, cannot be considered a spent force in
the political spectrum. He has, in fact,
launched a massive campaign in the
attempt to stage one of those "come-backs" for which he is famous. As his opponents
grudgingly admit, Berlusconi has
proven to be totally ineffectual as a leader, but he is an incredibly efficient
campaigner, aided in this by the control he wields on six of the seven major
television networks. The question that is being asked by perplexed observers in
Italy (and abroad) is whether
Berlusconi's unrivalled showmanship will
convince the Italian voters next February, or whether, after a year of
political sobriety and harsh austerity measures, they will tend to focus more
on concrete issues.
There are signs of unusual cohesion in the Centre-Left
Democratic Party, which, according to current polls, could emerge as the winner
in the next elections, remaining short,
however, of the overall majority in both Houses of Parliament which would allow
it to govern efficiently.
The Prime
Minister himself has openly faulted the
majority Centre-Right party, Mr. Berlusconi's "People of Liberty", for its lack of support, accusing it of having caused a premature and
needless Government crisis and reserving
some elegant but venomously caustic remarks
for Mr. Berlusconi himself. He has also confirmed his hope to witness the
formation of a credible "centrist" coalition whose platform would be a
political agenda issued by Monti,
available on line, and which will participate in the elections bearing Monti's
name..
Berlusconi's
party still has a majority in Parliament, but
its popular support, according to
reliable polls, has fallen dramatically to all-time low levels (between 15 and
18%). Since the inception of an aggressive Television campaign, it appears,
however, to be on the upswing again.
In this
complex, and in many ways typically Italian, game, the newly formed Centrist party, led by Monti,
which at the moment has limited popular appeal could end up influential enough to become a decisive
element in
The other
players, at the moment, have only minor roles to fulfil, although It would be a
mistake to underestimate the negotiating strength of the separatist,
anti-European, xenophobic and sometimes racist "Northern League", which played
a vital role in the former government and could again become an important
player with its newly forged -- albeit fragile -
alliance with Berlusconi, particularly in the Northern regions, which,
thanks to Italy's extremely complex electoral system could allow its members an
important numerical presence in the Upper House of Parliament..
In this
game, one can say that "The Joker is Wild", and
it is therefore essential to keep an eye on the maverick, populist "Five
Stars" movement, founded and run by comedian Beppe Grillo, which, at the
moment has significant popular support.
The question is whether it can keep the momentum it has gained or whether it is
destined to shrink to its former size or perhaps disappear from the political
scene altogether.
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