Once there were a few voices in the wilderness but, now, 80 countries at a Swiss summit have called for negotiations to end the two-year war between Russia and Ukraine. With Russia not in attendance, their representatives to the conference insisted that any peace plan must rest on Ukraine's "territorial integrity." That demand is thoroughly legitimate though it conflicts with one of Russia's most basic war-aims. Still, there is a flickering glimmer of amid the paralysis that has defined efforts to bring both sides to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated his readiness to negotiate but his conditions are: Ukraine must first demilitarize, recognize Russian annexations, especially Crimea and territories around Kherson, reject NATO, and guarantee Russian security. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he, too is willing to negotiate, but Russia must first meet ten conditions including withdrawal of all forces from all Ukrainian territories including Crimea. The insincerity on both sides is striking: negotiations are unnecessary when the demands of each have been met in advance.
Negotiate now! The stated preconditions for talks are merely excuses to delay them There is no time to wait! Waves of Russian bombs are still blasting Ukraine's cities to bits while Ukraine's Kamikaze drones have struck 600 miles into Russia. Estimates are that over 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded as against Ukraine's 125,000 casualties at the front along with the tens of thousands more at home who are suffering from effects of the bombardment including lack of consumer staples, hospital beds, medicines, lack of electricity, water, and sanitary conditions.
All these numbers will climb: Russia's counter-attack in the spring of 2024 has imperiled key Ukrainian cities, Belarus might open a "second front," Putin is receiving increased aid from North Korea, endorsed its nuclear program, and increasingly threatened to employ nuclear weapons of his own. Meanwhile, Ukraine is experiencing shortages of ammunition, man-power, and its economy is eroding, while awaiting new support from its allies. The United States has signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, offered another $50 billion in aid, and more advanced weaponry as the G-7 has appropriated $280 billion in Russian assets and imposed sanctions on those nations aiding Putin. In spite of disillusionment among sectors of the Western public, the continuation of trench war-fare, and soaring costs, the Russo-Ukrainian war is heating up rather than cooling down.
Leaders of Ukraine and Russia have both staked their reputations on military victory even though their economies are verging on collapse, and their citizens are despairing. The national interest of civil society and the national interests of governments are thus objectively in conflict. The implications for the rest of the world are clear: Ukraine is becoming ever more reliant on Western humanitarian and military aid and, in the process, compromising its sovereignty. Meanwhile, an authoritarian alliance is growing tighter between Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus. Each of them poses geo-political threats to neighboring states and, in this regard, it is important to note that 2 out of 3 European members of NATO are now contributing their agreed-upon share (roughly 2% of GNP). Common wisdom suggests that abandoning Ukraine will tempt their imperialist ambitions. But maintaining support might produce the same result. Continuing to pour resources into this seemingly endless war can create the impression that the West has ever fewer to aid other allies such as Taiwan, South Korea, and the Baltic states. Neither continuing the present aid policy, nor radically changing it, offers any assurance of humanitarian outcomes: only successful negotiations can provide that.
Contempt for negotiation efforts by self-styled experts only turn prolonging the war into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Meanwhile, human rights activists bemoan Russian atrocities even as they endorse policies that assure their continuance. Talks cannot wait for a "tactical" nuclear strike, conditions to worsen, or the acceptance of competing war aims. That is especially the case since rough parameters for an agreement already exist:
--- Negotiations must include all nations directly or indirectly involved in the conflict.
--- Imposition of a cease-fire and troop withdrawals to the borders of March 23, 2022.
---- Security guarantees must be provided for both nations: Ukraine must agree not to join NATO and, in exchange, accelerate its membership in the EU. Sanctions on Russia would be lifted in accordance with its practices in de-escalating the conflict.
--- Five miles of "no-man's land' must provide a buffer between Ukraine and Russia.
--- Independent international agencies must monitor the peace and investigate human rights violations. For example, the UN High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR) will oversee plans to deal with refugees,exchange of prisoners, collection of corpses, and elimination of land-mines.
--- Creating an international "fund," similar to the global climate fund, is necessary to reconstruct Ukraine.
Even speculative suggestions for peace are necessary when there is only talk of war. The humanitarian catastrophe is worsening and it is incumbent upon the global community to prioritize the material needs of everyday citizens (and soldiers) over those of governments. Not to talk about peace is to perpetuate war-- pure and simple-- and that is something the people of Russia and Ukraine cannot afford. Negotiate now!
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