A special UN Security Council meeting on nuclear disarmament issues convened by Japan in March underscored agreement among all 15 members that the risk of nuclear war and a major arms race is higher than at any point since the end of the Cold War, as stated by writer Darryl Kimball in his story "Breaking the Impasse on Disarmament".
However, it also highlighted the differences among the nuclear-armed states regarding how to reduce the danger. Before the meeting, the Japanese foreign minister said, "The world now stands on the cusp of reversing decades of declines in nuclear stockpiles." To address such challenges, UN Secretary-General António Guterres outlined achievable steps that, if pursued by China, Russia, the United States, and others, could begin to move the world away from a nuclear arms race. Noting that "states possessing nuclear weapons are absent from the table of dialogue", Guterres said they "must reengage" to reduce nuclear stockpiles, prevent nuclear use, negotiate a joint no-first-use agreement, stop nuclear saber-rattling, and reaffirm support for the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. He emphasized that countries with the largest arsenals, Russia and the US, "must find a way back to the negotiating table to fully implement the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and agree on its successor".
Last month, several members of Congress introduced an important resolution calling for stronger US efforts to engage Russia and China in arms control talks. However, moving the nuclear-armed states in the right direction will require stronger and sustained pressure from civil society, legislators, and the international community, as stated by Kimball. At the Security Council meeting on March 18, US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield criticized Russia's nuclear rhetoric and reiterated the 2023 US offer to engage in bilateral talks with Moscow on a post-New START nuclear arms control framework, but Russia's delegate renewed the Kremlin's rejection of the U.S. offer, claiming that there is no basis for such work if Western countries refuse to recognize Russia's vital interests.
Maintaining limits on strategic nuclear arsenals is vital to the US, China, and Russia. Yet, New START, the last remaining bilateral arms control treaty between Russia and the US, is due to expire in fewer than 675 days. Moreover, Russia and the US are obligated under Article VI of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to engage in negotiations to halt the arms race and move toward disarmament. It must be added that arms control is a casualty of the latest Cold War, with most of the arms control agreements between the US and Russia (in its Soviet and post-Soviet forms) being pushed to the side.
NPT member states should prioritize it at the NPT preparatory committee meeting this summer to press Moscow and Washington to observe the New START limits on deployed warheads until a more permanent, comprehensive nuclear arms control arrangement is concluded. Thomas-Greenfield also called out China's nuclear buildup and said that, despite a round of bilateral talks in November, China "remained unwilling to engage in substantive talks on nuclear risk reduction and arms control". China's delegate agreed that "the risk of a nuclear arms race and a nuclear conflict is rising" but insisted that US criticisms of China "don't hold water". He invited other nuclear-armed states to explore the possibility of a no-first-use agreement.
Guterres also called for reforms at the Conference on Disarmament to open the way for long-delayed talks on a fissile material cutoff treaty and on legally binding negative security assurances against nuclear attack for non-nuclear-weapon states, a priority for most nations. To advance progress at the CD, the United States indicated in February that it would drop its opposition to talks on legally binding assurances against nuclear attack for non-nuclear states in good standing with their NPT commitments if other states, including China and Pakistan, drop their objections to long-delayed talks on an FMCT. If accepted by Beijing, such a quid pro quo could jump-start CD activity and lead to tangible results that reduce nuclear risks and guard against unconstrained arms buildups.
Kimball touched on a key thought that the US and its partners and foes must remember going forward: It will take strong domestic and international pressure, smart diplomacy, and luck to prevent disaster.
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project
