"Zero
problems with neighbors", was the catchy motto selected by then
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Erdogan for his country's foreign policy
not so long ago. These days, when the relations of Turkey with neighbors
and more distant states alike appear to be made of problems almost
entirely, the motto looks like a dark joke, a one that didn't age well
(or did, depending on the point of view) and gives grounds for
re-evaluation of the Turkish leadership's actions and decisions that led
the country to its current state.
Indeed, it was in the
relations with its neighbors, first and foremost Syria, where Turkey
faced the crucial challenges over the past few years. Under the
leadership of Recep Erdogan Turkey intervened into the Syrian conflict,
having cut ties with the government of Bashar al-Assad and started open
military confrontation with the Syrian Kurds.
As the Syrian
crisis quickly escalated from a local conflict to a full-blown proxy war
involving both regional and global powers, Turkey's move threatened to
undermine its relations with the concerned parties. Ankara's
intervention clashed with the interests of all of Russia, Iran and the
US, putting bilateral ties and projects under threat.
The acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems went through only after multiple delays and difficulties. In turn, the US removed Turkey from F-35 joint fighter program altogether. Turkey-Iran relations also experienced a a substantial decline. Moreover, aggressive policies pursued by Turkish leadership unnerved NATO members, prompting them to reconsider Turkey's status in the alliance.
Already worsening relations with European
states were further deteriorated by Turkey's ambiguous stance on the
migration crisis after Erdogan elected to exploit the issue to blackmail
the EU leaders. Simultaneously he threatening to open borders and
demanded financial assistance.
The same stands true for Turkey's
actions in Libya, where Ankara supports the Government of National
Accord, and hence confronts the Libyan National Army led by strongman
Khalifa Hafter, who is backed by both regional players and EU states
wary of a new influx of migrants from Libya.
It is no surprise
that Turkey's ungainly efforts to export its Syrian experience to Libya
brought equally woeful results. As in Syria, Ankara found itself in
collision with Moscow and resorted to verbal attacks against the
Russians. Imagine the absurdity of the situation: Turkey accused Russia
of sending Syrian militants to Libya despite Recep Erdogan's open
claims about Turkey doing the very same (it must be noted that Erdogan's
statements did not discourage Turkish police from arresting two journalists who reported on death of a Turkish intelligence officer in Libya). And on top of that, Turkey pays double the amount of reward Russia allegedly provides to those willing to travel to Libya, according to an Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov.
Israeli
analyst backing Turkish narrative is peculiar enough to suggest that
Erdogan's meddling with a three-dimensional chess game was, unbeknown to
him, exploited by a much more competent player who did not miss the
opportunity to create tension where it suits them.
It is only to
be expected that sooner or later, likely the former, taking into
account the situation the schemes cunningly composed and guilefully
executed by the Turkish leadership will end in the only possible and
totally foreseeable way Recep Erdogan finding himself tangled in his
own web of deceit. For that, he will have no one to blame but his
ambitions.
