Ukraine must win in 2023, otherwise Putin will have the opportunity to prolong the conflict, - Washington Post
Military analysts list the problems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may face if there is no combat success in 2023The Washington Post publishes the opinion that the prospect of conflict is "a protracted conflict in favor of Putin" if Ukraine cannot win in 2023. US financial support in the amount of $45 billion will be enough for a year, but then "all bets are removed," interviewed experts believe.
Ukraine has Allies' support, army motivation and momentum from recent combat achievements. But there are also problems that the AFU may face.
1. The Russian Armed Forces dig into defensive positions, reinforced by at least one hundred thousand mobilizedIf Kyiv cannot achieve significant breakthroughs against this entrenched, growing Russian force, there is a risk that the war will become a protracted conflict favoring Putin, said Elizabeth Shackelford of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. A $45 billion aid package approved by Congress will tide Ukraine over for the year, she said, but with U.S. presidential elections in 2024, the longer-term outlook is harder to predict.
2. Ukraine's successes in 2022 were facilitated by Russian mistakes that are less likely to be repeated now"If it doesn't wrap in 2023, Putin will have a very big upper hand. As it is, Zelensky still has a shot because he still has very strong support"
The
goals of the Russian Federation were too ambitious. Ukraine has won a
symbolic victory just by remaining a sovereign country. The question now
is, can Ukraine achieve what it wants, which is to return at least to
the February 24 borders, if not to retake more territory than that.
The
onus is now on Ukraine to remain on the offensive, which is more
difficult than defending terrain, said Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine now
with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
3. Shell shortages"It's easier to defend than it is to attack, and the Russians have already set up long defensive positions"
Much may come down to which side runs out of ammunition first. Western officials have been predicting for months that Russia is at risk of running out of ammunition, and although that hasn't happened yet, there is continuing evidence that Russian supplies are low.
The depletion of Russian ammunition supplies, especially for artillery, makes it unlikely Russia will be able to mount any kind of successful offensive operation for some time, despite predictions by the Ukrainian military that Moscow is preparing a major offensive, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.
But it is also far from clear that the West will be able to keep up with Ukraine's ammunition needs, especially as offensive operations require greater quantities of materiel.
EU members must pour more resources into boosting their military capabilities to ensure the flow of weapons will continue "until Ukraine prevails" over Russia, the bloc's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has said. But he acknowledged that insufficient preparation has led to member states' stockpiles becoming depleted.
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