The Joe Biden Administration is preparing for a major diplomatic push in the volatile region of the Middle East.
Daniel Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller addressed the strategy behind the push in their story "Getting Israeli-Saudi Reproachment Right: No Deal is Better than a Bad One." The goal is to normalize the Israel and Saudi Arabia relationship. The media has covered this development. The three governments are working together in a peacemaking deal to achieve the same objective would be a rarity in Middle East history, as stated by Kurzer and Miller.
The United States' partners in this prospective arrangement are a repressive Saudi regime that seems increasingly to be working at cross purposes with the US and an Israeli governing coalition of the most extreme right-wing parties and politicians in the country's history. The political realities in Israel mean that the Biden Administration must not give away too much to Saudi Arabia without asking some of Israel, especially when it comes to the Palestinians, said Kurtzer and Miller.
They stated the foundation Biden must work with: "under former US President Donald Trump, US diplomacy helped break the ice between Israel and the Gulf states. The Abraham Accords formalized the normalization of ties between Israel and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. The signing of these agreements stoked anticipation of an even more consequential deal with the Saudis." Israel and Saudi Arabia currently share intelligence and Saudi Arabia allows Israeli commercial airlines to fly through its airspace on the way to Asia. Israel signed off on a deal in which Egypt returned two small Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, and an agreement is pending that would allow Muslim pilgrims from Israel to take direct flights to Saudi Arabia for the hajj. The rising threat of Iran has also brought the two states together.
While the US relationship with Saudi Arabia has been a good one for years, it's hard to describe them as an ally today, as stated by Kurzer and Miller. The Islamic theocracy shares few of the same values of the US in terms of democracy and human rights. It's interests also diverge from ours in terms of relationships with Russia and China. The Arab state is acting as if US interests are secondary, as other states often do. Kurzer and Miller spoke of Saudi Arabia's demands: "Riyadh is asking Washington to support a civilian nuclear program, reportedly including a right for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium. Any export of U.S. nuclear technology to the kingdom must involve three ironclad Saudi commitments: to sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with Washington that includes strong nonproliferation requirements, to sign and ratify the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that strengthens the verification capabilities of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and to allow onsite American inspection and electronic monitoring of their facilities."
Saudi Arabia has recommended a "Nuclear Aramco" a US-Saudi project that would give the US oversight of the development of a Saudi civilian nuclear power program. But this would still mean allowing uranium enrichment to take place inside Saudi Arabia something Washington has opposed and should not allow because of proliferation concerns and Riyadh's unpredictability. As stated by Kurzer and Miller, the US should therefore press the Saudis to improve their human rights record, stabilize and improve the situation in Yemen, and take US concerns into account when setting oil prices. Washington should also push Riyadh for greater transparency on its emerging relationship with Beijing and demand tight security for any arms or technology the United States transfers to Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis will most likely want a security agreement from the US to defend the kingdom from attack, something the Biden Administration should not agree to, as that country's primary threat is not invasion but internal subversion. Israel would welcome the moves to tighten ties with Saudi Arabia, but the state will have to make some compromises. The Biden Administration should demand that the overhaul of the judiciary in the country should stop, thus forcing it to continue its status, at least somewhat, as a democratic republic. Kurzer and Miller remind their readers that Israel's current government is at least partially theocratic and committed to undermining democracy and annexing the West Bank.
There will be even more compromise in the deal, as the Biden Administration must demand addressing the problems of the Palestinians and the possibility of a two-state solution. The Saudis have spoken on the need to advance Palestinian interests. There must be compromise from both sides on the Israel-Palestinian question. US and Saudi demands must be big enough to stop Israel's annexation of the occupied territories and make it impossible for the Palestinians to balk at an agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not accept much compromise on the Palestinian issue. Kurzer and Miller stated: "Demanding them (compromise by Israel) as part of a triangular diplomatic process would put Netanyahu in the uncomfortable position of rejecting normalization with Saudi Arabia in order to placate his annexationist ministers." Palestinians should commit to holding democratic elections, and the US should prepare for the outcome of those elections.
Smart diplomacy would blunt Chinese influence in the Middle East and reassert US influence. Kurzer and Miller correctly state that a good deal would be diplomatically ambitious and potentially transformational. It would also pave the way for peace in the Middle East, or at least peace amongst the Palestinians and Israelis. Let's not forget peace and security as the goal of our foreign policy and diplomacy!
Jason Sibert is the lead writer for the Peace Economy Project
