Betting On The Ceasefire

See this page for links to articles on OpEdNEws that articulate both sides on the issues in the middle east. It is the goal of OpEdNews to air opinions from both sides to stretch the envelope of discussion and communication. Hate statements are not accepted. Discussions of issues and new ideas for solutions are encouraged. .

If the latest Israel-Lebanon debacle was a boxing match instead of a war, Las Vegas would be taking bets as to whether there would be a rematch. But instead of gamblers wagering their money, it is both the Israelis and Lebanese who must risk their lives and homes. Will the ceasefire last? That depends on what we have just learned.

Presently, we have a split decision. Who actually won this war depends on the judges. In the Arab world, the judges see the fight going to Hezbollah. This apparently includes the people of Lebanon who suffered tremendously as each side kept punching. Israel's Darth Olmert, doing his best to impersonate Ali, insisted that his pre-war predictions were kept. Did his objectives include the launching of hundreds of rockets at northern Israel in the final round? And then there is the US government. Instead of seeing this conflict for the terror it was, Bush painted the whole affair as a region in labor anticipating the birth of a promised child. Apparently, Bush has trouble distinguishing contractions from explosions.

All of the post fight bravado had one purpose. It was to ensure that neither fighter would lose either his fan base or investors. All of the propaganda was designed to convince those who felt cheated that the fight was worth it.

If we compare these claims with Amira Hass's excellent assessment in Haaretz, we see that both camps were lying. The human loss on both sides disallows any military accomplishment from determining the winner. In addition, what Israel has failed to comprehend, according to Hass, is that the more Israel relies on force, the more its enemies rely on fortitude. [1]

What did we learn from this fight? We learned that people are as just as deaf after the war as before. Israel has no new plans for listening to Hezbollah. Either Israel is "unable" or "unwilling" to listen as Spock would say. In either case, this increases the odds of a rematch. Failing to listen to Hezbollah contributed to the start of this war. In their defense, Israel sees no need to listen to whom they perceive as a trash-talking chump. This defense does not have a promising future.

This fight also taught us that technology sleeps around. Certainly advances in technology helped the champion throw bigger haymakers. But the same mistress enabled the challenger become an effective jabber. Perhaps the ceasefire was a result of Israel yelling "no mas" because it was not in shape to take the consistent punching from Hezbollah. In addition, the Hezbollah was able to weather the knock out punches from the IDF.

The third lesson we learned is that there are no more refereed fights. Both Israel and Hezbollah often hit each other below the belt and they did so without point deductions. Can we expect future fights to be different when the most powerful recognize no authority above them? If the powerful ignore the rules, why should the jealous upstarts be any different?

One question which must be asked is what will happen when technology teaches the challenger to throw haymakers. Will the champion then realize that it is time to retire from the fight game and will the challenger be willing to forego a grudge rematch?

With the world almost at war, technology will produce one of two effects. Technology might teach us to listen to each other in order to prevent future wars. If we are lucky, the champions of the world will realize that they are just too old and tired to absorb the punishment that they have been dishing out. Then our champions could retire and start second careers. But as long as each champion persists in fighting one more fight, then, because of technology, it could mean lights out for all of us.

Will there be a rematch? Perhaps the real question is whether this Israel-Lebanon match was the featured fight or is there a heavyweight title match on tonight's card? Will the US attack Iran? The indications are mixed. But if we learned anything from the first fight, it was that we need to respect the jabbing ability of our opponent if we choose to fight. In addition, we should pray that any realized heavyweight fight with Iran does not morph into a WWF tag team wrestling match. Of course, if we really learned anything from the Israel-Lebanon match it is that now is the time to retire from the fight game. We must realize that our next fight just might be too staggering for anyone to take.

[1] http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/747999.html