To launch a war based solely on fear, distrust, and
misinformation -- a polite term for micro-managed intelligence as in the case of
Iraq -- is an egregious error in judgment that inevitably results in unintended
consequences creating serious harm to the aggressor. We learned that in the
Iraq war launched on March 19, 2003.
Or did we?
Now the world is facing still another senseless war
based entirely on fear, distrust, nonexistent diplomacy resulting in
nonexistent negotiation -- meaning the two sides won't even talk to one another
-- and the all-present specter of "misinformation." This one will be in a
different place in a different time.
The place is Iran. The time is now. The scene has
changed. The players have changed. The script has not changed.
The only other thing that has changed is that this
war will be ten times worse. Iran is four times the size of Iraq, with some
rugged terrain that can only be comparable to Afghanistan. We all know what is
happening there as we enter the second decade of war in that forlorn region.
Iran has nearly three times the population of Iraq. Iran does not have a
military that has been depleted and severely weakened by a Gulf War (1991) and
over a decade of severe sanctions. Iran is armed and ready with some of the
most technologically advanced weapons systems in the world, including fighter
aircraft, air defense, anti-ship missiles, and medium range ballistic missiles
that can easily reach Israel.
Recently the Christian Science Monitor released a
report that was enormously disconcerting. The article was entitled "UN report
on Iran's nuclear progress signals tricky road ahead for Obama." http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/0831/UN-report-on-Iran-s-nuclear-progress-signals-tricky-road-ahead-for-Obama
The report written by Howard LaFranchi
stated, "Iran doubled its capacity at an underground enrichment site, the IAEA
reported. Israeli officials say Netanyahu will ask Obama in September to commit
to military action to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons capability." He
then continued, "The United
Nations nuclear watchdog agency's latest estimates of progress in Iran's
uranium enrichment program are a guarantee -- if there was ever any doubt -- that
Iran, and Israel,
are two foreign policy issues that aren't going to sit on hold until after
the US presidential election [emphasis is mine]."
CSM does not go into sensationalism. That reporting
was, indeed, disturbing, to say the very least, but LaFranchi was not through.
He further reported, "Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already putting the US on notice that
he has no intentions of keeping his concerns about Iran in a pocket until after
November. Mr. Netanyahu is expected to meet with President
Obama when he is in the US in September to attend the UN General Assembly."
The reporting by the CSM writer is quite alarming.
If it is all to be believed, giving no discredit to LaFranchi who is simply
reporting what he has seen and heard. However, there is a problem created by
the IAEA and its reporting to the media and how the media has handled the total
report.
Here is a somewhat more accurate report that you
won't find in the media or statements by politicians. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report finds that
Iran has doubled the number of centrifuges at an underground nuclear site. The
IAEA report notes, for example, that only about a third of the centrifuges at
Fordo are operational, and that, furthermore, the machines being installed
there are of an older technology. The report also concludes that Iran has
stymied all efforts by the IAEA to access the underground Fordo site and
determine how operational it is and what functions it is capable of
undertaking. It doesn't take a genius to realize that those statements are
mutually exclusive. It seems all of sudden the IAEA knows an awful lot about a
site they cannot inspect. They know a great deal more as the reader will soon
see.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Israeli
press, and the American press reacted sharply to IAEA statements taken of
context. The New York Times stated "that the US is also reluctantly considering
previously rejected covert action against Iran, including air strikes on power
plants and other sites that could impact Iranian civilian populations, as well
as a "clandestine' strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, much like the
strike Israel launched against Syria in 2007."
The Times report comes a day after Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the international community to set a
"clear red line" for military action against Iran. Bloomberg
News reports that Mr. Netanyahu said that such a threat was necessary to rein in Iran.
Have we not been down this road before, a road
filled with potholes and unintended consequences based upon pure belligerent
rhetoric and abysmal intelligence? Yes we have. Are we so stupid to allow this
to happen again?
There is much the Israeli and American press left
out. There is much from the IAEA report that Israeli and American politicians
ignored in their pronouncements following the report. The IAEA reported that
Iran has actually reduced the amount of 20-percent enriched uranium
available for a nuclear device rather than increasing it. This reduction in the
amount of 20-percent enriched uranium is due to a major acceleration in the
fabrication of fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor, which needs
20-percent enriched uranium to produce medical isotopes. When 20-percent
uranium is used to make fuel plates it is nearly impossible to change it back
to weapons grade levels.
The conclusion from the IAEA report is self-evident.
It clearly illustrates that Iran is further away from actually making a nuclear
weapon than months earlier.
Yet none of this was reported in the media or the
reactions of politicians following the IAEA report. Instead the mass media and
clueless politicians hemorrhaged fear and distrust of Iran along with the
threat of all-out war. Yes, all-out war, not some mythical surgical strike with
Iran bowing down to Israel soon after. A military operation against Iran will
enflame the entire Middle East and will provide an existential threat to our
extremely valuable ally in the Middle East, Israel. What will the U.S. do then?
In addition a military strike on Iran will be catastrophic to the world's
economy. The mass media and mindless politicians did not deal with any of that.
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