Watching the 2010 US midterm election season open from my vantage-point far across the Pacific in China, I can barely contain my glee at the latest news from New York's 23rd congressional district as its Nov. 3 special election approaches. Due to the growing rift between the GOP establishment and its frothing-at-the-mouth conservative base, Democrat Bill Owens (pictured here, see campaign website) appears increasingly likely to capture what until now has been considered a safe Republican seat. With strong support from the right-wingnut faction of the Republican Party - including endorsements from leading wingnuts such as Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, and Michele Bachmann - Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has drawn enough conservative support away from moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava to give the Democrat a clear lead in both poll numbers and fundraising.
Despite endorsements and support from establishment Republicans like Newt Gingrich, Scozzafava has fallen to second place in two recent polls, the most recent showing her carrying 30% of likely voters to Owens' 35% and Hoffman's 23% (see CQ Politics, Daily Kos). Meanwhile, campaign fundraising figures released Oct. 22 show that Owens raised more than his two rivals combined between July 1 and Oct. 14: Fundraising totals for the three are $502,197 for Owens, $233,583 for Scozzafava, and $205,139 for Hoffman (see Swing State Project, NY Daily News). This is not not good news for the GOP, but of course it is wonderful news for Democrats. A conservative-leaning Democrat and therefore not an especially exciting candidate for progressives in and of himself, Owens' surge nonetheless represents an opportunity for Democrats across the United States and abroad to take one more seat in Congress away from the Republicans and grab some early momentum as we head into 2010.
It would also be a lot of fun meanwhile to watch the GOP slide into even deeper disarray. I for one relish the prospect of the NY-23 special election signalling all-out war nationwide between a pragmatic but impotent GOP establishment led by Gingrich and a tea-party faction led by the likes of Limbaugh, Palin, Beck, and Bachmann. Boy howdy, what a show! Should wingnuts turn against the Republican establishment and split the conservative vote nationwide, what looked like a less-than-promising midterm election year for Democrats could turn into a far better year than any expected.
In addition to Owens' campaign website, support may be directed his way via Act Blue and/or via the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Mark C. Eades
Shanghai, China
http://www.mceades.com
