6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (2016 -- TRUE)
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (2016 -- FALSE)
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (2016 -- TRUE)
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (2016 -- TRUE)
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (2016 -- TRUE)
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (2016 -- UNDECIDED)
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (2016 -- FALSE)
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (2016 -- TRUE)
Can you please summarize how The Keys stand today?
I predicted the 2012 election in January 2010 and the 2008 election in February 2006. It is the undecided keys that make this election difficult to call.
Currently the incumbent Democrats have 4 keys turned against them, 2 keys short of a predicted defeat. However, 3 keys remain undecided: incumbent party Contest Key, Third Party Key, and Foreign Policy/Military Success Key. If 2 of these 3, undecided keys turn against the Democrats, they will be predicted losers next November. Otherwise they will be predicted winners.
Which Keys, that remain undecided, are related to climate change and how?
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