Climate change could be central to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election in a way that conventional analysts have not yet grasped. If the Obama administration achieves a major international agreement, on combating climate change in Paris in December, that would secure the Foreign/Military Success Key and nearly guarantee a Democratic victory.
Bernie Sanders is currently surging in his bid for the Democratic nomination. What happens to The Keys if Bernie Sanders is nominated ?
A Sanders nomination would be bad news for Democrats, politically. Sanders would likely win the party's nomination only after a serious contest with Hilary Clinton. That would turn a 5th key against the incumbent Democrats, leaving the party one key short of defeat. If there is a serious contest and President Obama does not achieve a major foreign policy success, the Republican nominee would win the November election.
Does electing Donald Trump in the Republican Primary impact The Keys?
Donald Trump appeals to a limited segment of the electorate. But he is no Ronald Reagan with across-the-board appeal. Thus, his nomination would not turn a key and would not impact the outcome of the election.
What are the implications for U.S. Presidential election of the upcoming UNFCC climate talks in Paris in December 2015?
In addition to the Foreign/Military Success Key, one of The Keys is achievement of major policy change by the incumbent administration. Securing an international treaty that also requires major, domestic policy change on the climate issue, could potentially turn 2 keys in favor of the Democrats. In that case, Democrats would be down only 3 keys, instead of 4 keys and counting.
Please sum up the issue of climate change in 2016 as it relates The Keys to the White House.
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