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OpEdNews Op Eds    H4'ed 4/9/20

Covid19 Death Figures "A Substantial Over-Estimate"

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Kit Knightly
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How many "Covid19 deaths" in Germany, fall into this bracket? We don't know, and will likely never know.

But at least Germany is actually limiting itself to test positive cases.

In the United States, a briefing note from the CDC's National Vital Statistics Service read as follows [our emphasis]:

It is important to emphasise that Coronavirus Disease 19, or Covid-19, should be reported for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to death.

"Presumed to have caused"? "Contributed"? That's incredibly soft language, which could easily lead to over-reporting.

The referenced detailed "guidance" was released April 3rd, and is no better [again, our emphasis]:

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID19 on a death certificate as "probable" or "presumed." In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID19 infection was likely.

Are careful records being kept to separate "Covid-19" from "presumed Covid-19"? Are the media making sure they respect the distinction in their reporting?

Absolutely not.

Whenever the alleged casualties are referenced we are fed one large all-inclusive number, without context or explanation, which thanks to lax reporting guidelines could be entirely false.

Government agencies all across the UK are doing the same thing.

Northern Ireland's HSC Public Health Agency is releasing weekly surveillance bulletins on the pandemic, in those reports they define a "Covid19 death" as:

individuals who have died within 28 days of first positive result, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death

NHS England's Office of National Statistics releases weekly reports on nation-wide mortality. Its latest report (Week 12 March 14th-20th) was released on March 31st and made special mention of Covid19, explaining they were going to c hange the way they report the numbers in future.

The ONS system is predicated on the registration of deaths. Meaning they count, not the number of people who die every week, but the number of deaths registered per week. This, naturally, leads to slight delays in the recording of numbers as the registration process can take a few days.

However, with coronavirus deaths, since its a "national emergency", they are now including "provisional figures" which will be "included in the dataset in subsequent weeks". This leaves them wide open to either accidentally or deliberately reporting the same deaths twice. Once "provisionally", and then once "officially" a week later.

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[Republished from Off-Guardian] 

Kit Knightly is co-editor of OffGuardian. The Guardian banned him from commenting. Twice. He used to write for fun, but now he's forced to out of a near-permanent sense of outrage.


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