Too many people share former British Ambassador Craig Murray's reaction: "I really cannot begin to fathom how stupid you would have to be to believe" that Iran attacked those tankers. After all, Cui bono? Aren't there a slew of other actors--Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or the US itself (can you say John Bolton?)--who have more of an interest right now in dramatic explosions that practically invite a US military response?
That was certainly my reaction.
Let's pause for a second to emphasize the wonderfulness of the Trump-effect at work here. As numerous media pundits are complaining, Trump himself lacks credibility and elicits skepticism, even from "our Western allies." The Washington Post (WaPo) headlined it: "Standoff with Iran exposes Trump's credibility issue as some allies seek more proof of tanker attack." I discussed this in a previous essay, quoting the New York Times on the attitudes of more than a dozen diplomats and international politicians: With Trump as president, the US is losing the "moral authority [that] has imbued America with a special kind of clout in the world" and even "its ability to make needed alliances."
Ain't that grand?
Barack or Hillary wouldn't have that problem. Their attack on Iran would have been chock full of moral authority, grainy video and all.
Widening Gyre
Then Iran shot down an RQ-4A Global Hawk drone on June 20th. That's a very valuable US military asset, one of the Navy's four RQ-4A "massive surveillance" drones that cost $110-220 million apiece--more than an F-35, the country's most advanced fighter jet.
That drone probably did violate Iranian airspace, as Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and MoA show (also here). In that narrow part of the Strait of Hormuz, it was virtually impossible not to. But the argument over that is clouded by how the drone's 60,000-ft cruising altitude affected its angle from the Iranian shore.
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