The Georgian authorities responsibly and miraculously stopped an illegal transfer of weapons grade nuclear material about three years ago "within" South Ossetia, the global clearinghouse for this activity. This success with the arrest of North Ossetian smuggler Oleg Khinsagov in the SO capital of Tskhinvali. See Note below for details. That opportunity to thwart future potential nuclear material transfers however, now appears gone with Georgia forever removed from South Ossetia. That should raise the biggest concern of all in all this mess to the West and a big wakeup call to those naively trumpeting "Russian Peacekeeping".
(Weapons Grade) Nuclear Material Note:
Wikipedia (and other sources) notes Oleg Khinsagov is a Russian citizen from North Ossetia. On Jan. 25, 2007, he was sentenced by a Georgian couurt for 8.5 years for smuggling 100 grams of hghly enriched uranium. According to the Georgian authorities, in January 2006, Khinsagov together with a few Georgian citizens from the separatist region of South Ossetia was trying to sell 100 grams of highly-enriched uranium. He claimed that the material is only a sample and he has more than 3 kilograms of the substance in his Vladikavkaz garage. Georgian police arranged meeting of Khinsagov with their Turkish-speaking agent introduced as a representative of a rich Muslim organization willing to buy the sample for $1 million US. At the meeting held on February 1, 2006 Khinsagov was arrested with 100 grams of a substance in two plastic pouches. The chemical analysis performed by an American Department of Energy Lab confirmed the substance been a U-235 purity of 89.451 percent enriched Uranium that makes it a Weapons-grade material….the FSB (KGB successor) report provided for the Georgian investigators confirmed the substance been the highly enriched uranium and indicated it was processed more than ten years ago.”
The author will add however, that he is very hopeful that proud and responsible American citizens and leaders Barack Obama and Joe Biden can help bring back those disenfranchised attitudes this week by shedding some new light at the Democratic Convention on the rapidly changing and increasingly complex global security situation and some constructive new themes to address those major challenges.
Parts 1 and 2 in this 4 part series assessed the events leading up to and including the August 7, 2008 intervention by Georgia into the (currently, as it was too on August 7) globally (including Russia) recognized “Georgian” province of South Ossetia and subsequent Aug. 8, 2008 Russian response.
Those first two parts noted here for easy reference:
Part 1: Commulism Muscle Flexing: Soviet(?)-Georgian War (II?) – Expect More
Part 2: Georgia Conflict: "Russian Peacekeeping" or "Soviet Invasion"?
Part 3 picks the timeline up two plus weeks into the conflict to provide an update of events since, which further corroborate the Author’s original assessment of the Russian endgame, albeit denied by the noted previous commenters, is reality. In fact, the increasingly obvious nature of (original) Russian “intent”. That it was not “reactionary peacekeeping” as the trolls demand, but rather is pre-planned "purposeful invasion” as reality suggests.
But first, a recap of key observations and predicted outcomes as presented in Parts 1 and 2. In Part 1, in the face of most professing “peacekeeping”, not invasion, the Author outlined the real Russian Goals and Objectives:
“That Russian invasion strategy/objectives being - To derail NATO absorption of Georgia (and (send a message to) others going forward - "Stans", Ukraine, Baltic nations, etc. etc.), and (re)occupy Georgia (vis-à-vis regime change).
In support of that strategy, their spread of desired outcomes:
Minimally, the desired result being the first take-back of lost Soviet territory (South Ossetia), as well as the political death of a major Putin (the real Russian leader – it’s not Medvedev) thorn – Saakashvili, and ability to leverage a pro-Russian puppet leader into the Georgian Presidency who will eventually seek reunification with Russia, and
Optimally (Desired), the complete immediate occupation (re-absorption) of Georgia if NATO provides a total de-facto hands off military and political approach (a mere angry vote in the U.N. Security Council fits the bill as hands off) and Russia can fabricate reports of it being attacked by the Georgian military and acting in self defense in its continued march towards the Georgian capital Tbilisi. This outcome dependent upon the level of global backlash to the invasion. If severe, the "minimal" goal above will suffice for Putin, with the "optimal goal" temporarily delayed, but now positioned for success.”
In Part 2, the Author outlined anticipated Russian actions/tactics to achieve their “Saakashvili Ousting” strategy:
"Tbilisi Choking Plan" Note:
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