Don't be surprised to see this "2 steps forward one step back" movement manifest itself as a siege of sorts of Tbilisi, vis-a-vis cutting the city off from all air, sea and land supply routes. The Russian blockade and occupation of the major Black Sea port of Poti, but one link in this choking/strangulation plan. This "choking/siege" strategy designed to (undermine the government) get starving Georgians to turn on President Saakashvili. Essentially doing Putin's dirty work without himself getting his own hands dirty, ala "Pontius Putin".
The Russian invasion endagame will be fully recognized when President Saakashvili is no longer President. It's a matter of when, not if. At that point, the rabid "Peacekeeping" proponents will have no choice but to finally concede "Invasion".
The Analyst coins the Russian "2 step forward one step back, delay and progress" plan as the "Stall to Advance" or "Gaming the Ceasefire" plan.
Bottom line, whatever the Russians say in terms of abiding by the Ceasefire and stating intention to withdraw "this day or that" or "this city or that", is just patently false rhetoric, as events will ultimately bear out. Bottom line, they came for 3 reasons (i.e. getting rid of Saakashvili, taking back Georgia and telling the world - "we're back"), and they are NOT leaving Georgia - ever (again). NATO needs to wake up and recognize that fact of life, and stop getting suckered by (hopeful) Russian promises and follow-on proven lies. In fact, Russia can't be trusted.
Interestingly now and precisely as scripted in the Author’s Parts 1 and 2, on August 23, 2008, the New York Times article titled “Despite Pullout, Russia Envisions Long-Term Shift” stated:
“As the Russian Army withdrew most of its forces from Georgia, it was becoming ever more clear on Friday that Moscow had no intention of restoring what once was — either on the ground or diplomatically…Russia’s forces are digging in and seizing ribbons of Georgian land that abut two breakaway enclaves allied…At the same time, the Kremlin is nearing formal recognition of the independence of the enclaves, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, possibly as early as next week…(Author’s note – as per his Part 2, this (new) formal recognition intent by Russia supports/confirms the assessment the Russians (knowingly and willingly) “invaded a sovereign country” under pretext of peacekeeping, as it confirms Russia had/have not previously (before invasion) recognized the two provinces (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) independence either independently or vis-a-vis the U.N. – see Analyst note in Part 2 specifically addressing this key “South Ossetia internationally/Russian recognition” point)…These moves indicate that despite the French-brokered cease-fire framework that Russia accepted, it is striving to maintain considerable economic and military pressure on Georgia…(Author’s note – see Part 2 discussing Russian plan of what the Analyst calls “Gaming the Ceasefire”)…The ultimate goal, it seems, is the ouster of its President Saakashvili…(Authors note – see Part 1 and 2 regarding Russian desired Outcomes and Endgame) and the installation of a government that it considers less hostile…(Author’s note – see Parts 1 and 2 on Russian outcomes and “Tbilisi Choking Plan”) ...The (Russian) defense minister, Anatoly E. Serdyukov, had declared the pullback completed, saying that “the Russian side has fulfilled” the cease-fire…Even so, Russian soldiers maintained a series of armed checkpoints along Georgia’s main highway, leaving the Kremlin with the ability to cut off trade and traffic across the country and to isolate the capital, Tbilisi, from much of the nation…(Author’s note – see Parts 1 and 2 regarding desired Russian invasion plan Outcomes and “Tbilisi Choking Plan”)…It also continued to occupy areas near a military base in Senaki, the western city of Zugdidi and the vital port of Poti on the Black Sea…(Author’s note – see Part 2 regarding “Gaming the Ceasefire”)…State Department spokesman, Robert Wood, said that by establishing the buffer zones, the Russians “failed to live up to their obligations under the cease-fire agreement.” France expressed similar objections…(Author’s note - see Part 2 regarding “Gaming the Ceasefire”)..In spurning a complete pullback, the Kremlin is sending a message that it has no regrets about marching into its much smaller neighbor, even if the conflict has stirred the sharpest tensions between Moscow and Washington since the end of the cold war…Alexei Pankin, a columnist for the Russian state news agency, said on Friday that the Kremlin had undoubtedly ordered tanks into Georgia because it wanted to somehow topple Mr. Saakashvili. While it did not immediately achieve that aim, it is now in a better position to do so than it was before the conflict…Their feeling now is, you made gains and you should keep them, Mr. Pankin said. “After what happened, their successes, they are not really feeling constrained now.”...The Kremlin has signaled its intention to remove Mr. Saakashvili in part by trying to isolate him….(Author’s note - see Parts 1 and 2 regarding Russian desired Outcomes and Endgame)…fears lingered that soldiers would try to conduct checks on the main east-west highway, creating economic stress on, or even a blockade of, Tbilisi and much of the rest of the country. Under the cease-fire accord, Russian forces are prohibited from blocking traffic, though they have done so this week…(Author’s note – see Part 2 regarding “Tbilisi Choking Plan”).
Then there is the August 24, 2008 Guardian.co.uk (The Observer) article titled “The proof that Russia is digging in deep in the heart of Georgia” which further supports the Analyst’s earlier assessment and predictions in Parts 1 and 2. The author cites the following corroborating Observer article excerpts:
“… watches Russian soldiers constructing trenches near the port of Poti, suggesting they are going nowhere fast…A day after announcing that it had 'withdrawn' from Georgia, Russian troops continued to occupy large areas of the country yesterday in defiance of international pressure and in breach of a ceasefire deal signed by Moscow…The country's (Russia) forces were in control of several key areas outside the original conflict zone - including the Black Sea port of Poti and the western town of Senaki. Additionally, troops had established new 'buffer zones' around the breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia…The United States, France and Britain have denounced Russia's failure to fully withdraw troops. They say it has blatantly failed to 'comply' with a ceasefire agreement…There was compelling evidence yesterday, however, that Russia is planning a long-term occupation of Georgia…The Observer witnessed Russian soldiers digging trenches seven kilometres outside the port of Poti next to the Rioni river and the main highway to Tbilisi...'This isn't peacekeeping. This is occupation. Their objective is to blockade Georgia and Georgians...This allows them to stop traffic to Poti (main Georgian Black Sea seaport). It means they can always blackmail us”…Locals flung leaflets at them (Russian soldiers) in Russian with the slogan: 'No to Russian fascism'…The Kremlin's plan now appears clear: to maintain a significant military presence in Georgia, capable of choking the country's economy and shutting down its major trade routes…(See Author’s Part 2 “Tbilisi Choking Plan”)… It also allows Russia the option of a future invasion, should it want one…The deputy head of Russia's general staff, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, was unrepentant yesterday. He said Russia would continue to patrol Poti - even though it lies outside any so-called 'security zone'…Moscow's failure to leave is deeply embarrassing for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who brokered the ceasefire deal last weekend with Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev”…(Author’s collective note with regard to the Observer piece above: See Author’s Parts 1 and 2 regarding Russian intent, desired outcomes, endgame vis-à-vis “Gaming the Ceasefire”. On the last Observer highlight, note Author’s previous Part 2 Neville Chamberlain analogy wrt to Sarkozy).
In conclusion, the trolls may not agree with the Analyst’s earlier assessment and predictions, but the situation is what it is. While they may in tantrum-like fashion, demand it is peacekeeping, the facts speak invasion. The NYT and Observer articles as well as the myriad of similar news articles from multiple other media sources, mainstream and alternative, fully corroborate the Analyst’s earlier (pre-planned) intent assessment and predictions. By the day, evidence mounts of Russian invasion et al intent and related actions, dwarfing peacekeeping in any sense of the word. In fact for all intents and purposes, proving “legitimate peacekeeping” was never contemplated by Moscow. Too, the articles further confirm this intent by quoting key Russian sources such as Mr. Pankin from the Russian state news agency, stating that the ultimate goal is regime change (not peacekeeping).
This all comes back to what is fueling this behavior and encouraging Russia further both in Georgia and now as a platform (model) for future similar like actions (Ukraine?). It is NATO’s (emperor has no clothes) demonstrated impotence to the invasion. If there is any silver lining, this crisis provides a long overdue, huge NATO wakeup call to awaken from its 17 year slumber party, and realizing it squandered away the post Cold War I “peace dividend”.
And begin doing something about it - Pursue new 21st century policies per the Commulism Response Framework (CRF).
Coming Next (Date TBD by Moscow):
Georgia Part 4: The Day Saakashvili Fell - Score One for Commulism; Watch Out Ukraine
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