See what's going on? The die is already cast. There will be a war with Russia because that's what the political establishment wants. It's that simple. And while previous provocations failed to lure Putin into the Ukrainian cauldron, this new surge of violence -- a spring offensive -- is bound to do the trick. Putin is not going to sit on his hands while proxies armed with US weapons and US logistical support pound the Donbass to Fallujah-type rubble. He'll do what any responsible leader would do. He'll protect his people. That means war. (See the vast damage that Obama's proxy war has done to E. Ukraine here: "An overview of the socio-humanitarian situation on the territory of Donetsk People's Republic as a consequence of military action from 17 to 23 January 2015")
Asymmetrical Warfare: Falling Oil Prices
Keep in mind, that the Russian economy has already been battered by economic sanctions, oil price manipulation, and a vicious attack of the ruble. Until this week, the mainstream media dismissed the idea that the Saudis were deliberately pushing down oil prices to hurt Russia. They said the Saudis were merely trying to retain "market share" by maintaining current production levels and letting prices fall naturally. But it was all bunkum as the New York Times finally admitted on Tuesday in an article titled: "Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support From Syria's Assad." Here's a clip from the article:
"Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices...
"Saudi officials say -- and they have told the United States -- that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices...Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft....
"Saudi Arabia's leverage depends on how seriously Moscow views its declining oil revenue. 'If they are hurting so bad that they need the oil deal right away, the Saudis are in a good position to make them pay a geopolitical price as well,' said F. Gregory Gause III, a Middle East specialist at Texas A&M's Bush School of Government and Public Service ("Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support From Syria's Assad," New York Times)
The Saudis "think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability" to manipulate prices?
That says it all, doesn't it?
What's interesting about this article is the way it conflicts with previous pieces in the Times. For example, just two weeks ago, in an article titled "Who Will Rule the Oil Market?" the author failed to see any political motive behind the Saudi's action. According to the narrative, the Saudis were just afraid that "they would lose market share permanently" if they cut production and kept prices high. Now the Times has done a 180 and joined the so-called conspiracy nuts who said that prices were manipulated for political reasons. In fact, the sudden price plunge had nothing to do with deflationary pressures, supply-demand dynamics, or any other mumbo-jumbo market forces. It was 100 percent politics.
The attack on the ruble was also politically motivated, although the details are much more sketchy. There's an interesting interview with Alistair Crooke that's worth a read for those who are curious about how the Pentagon's "full spectrum dominance" applies to financial warfare. According to Crooke:
"...with Ukraine, we have entered a new era: We have a substantial, geostrategic conflict taking place, but it's effectively a geo-financial war between the US and Russia. We have the collapse in the oil prices; we have the currency wars; we have the contrived "shorting" -- selling short -- of the ruble. We have a geo-financial war, and what we are seeing as a consequence of this geo-financial war is that first of all, it has brought about a close alliance between Russia and China.
"China understands that Russia constitutes the first domino; if Russia is to fall, China will be next. These two states are together moving to create a parallel financial system, disentangled from the Western financial system....
"For some time, the international order was structured around the United Nations and the corpus of international law, but more and more the West has tended to bypass the UN as an institution designed to maintain the international order, and instead relies on economic sanctions to pressure some countries. We have a dollar-based financial system, and through instrumentalizing America's position as controller of all dollar transactions, the US has been able to bypass the old tools of diplomacy and the UN -- in order to further its aims.
"But increasingly, this monopoly over the reserve currency has become the unilateral tool of the United States -- displacing multilateral action at the UN. The US claims jurisdiction over any dollar-denominated transaction that takes place anywhere in the world. And most business and trading transactions in the world are denominated in dollars. This essentially constitutes the financialization of the global order: The International Order depends more on control by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve than on the UN as before." ("Turkey might become hostage to ISIL just like Pakistan did," Today's Zaman)
Financial warfare, asymmetrical warfare, Forth Generation warfare, space warfare, information warfare, nuclear warfare, laser, chemical, and biological warfare. The US has expanded its arsenal well beyond the traditional range of conventional weaponry. The goal, of course, is to preserve the post-1991 world order (The dissolution up of the Soviet Union) and maintain full spectrum dominance. The emergence of a multi-polar world order spearheaded by Moscow poses the greatest single threat to Washington's plans for continued domination. The first significant clash between these two competing world views will likely take place sometime this summer in East Ukraine. God help us.
NOTE: The Novorussia Armed Forces (NAF) currently have 8,000 Ukrainian regulars surrounded in Debaltsevo, East Ukraine. This is a very big deal although the media has been (predictably) keeping the story out of the headlines.
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