NGOS vs. Delegates Parallel Universes?
Abolition Caucus NGOs are alarmed at the dangers and proliferation risks in the face of delegates' overwhelming enthusiasm and promotion of nuclear power. Why the huge discrepancy?
Most NPT delegates automatically repeat the mantras the "inalienable right" to "peaceful uses" of nuclear energy as "the third pillar" throughout most speeches. The belief in nuclear power is so deeply and widely held that it may seem outrageous to even question it.
Delegates, though skillful in diplomacy and consensus building, are not natural scientists. Their opinions on nuclear energy are largely informed by the IAEA, with its contradictory role in both promoting and regulating atomic power, and by vested interests, such as Areva, a French multinational nuclear power conglomerate and others who spend fortunes on deceptive propaganda promoting nuclear power. The industry spent $665 million in the US on rebranding nuclear energy as clean, green, and an answer to the climate crisis, and on congressional campaigns, including to President Obama, who approved loan guarantees to build new nuclear reactors for our "nuclear renaissance."
NPT Groupthink
The NPT bubble is a perfect environment for "groupthink" defined by Yale psychologist Irving Janis as: "A mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members' strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action." Despite disagreements within the NPT on disarmament and nonproliferation, the dialogue is dominated by unquestioned acceptance of nuclear energy. Few dare challenge this mindset.
In a "groupthink" environment, pressures for consensus implicitly or explicitly discourage independent thinking, creativity, and expression of doubts. Overconfidence and failure to consider alternative views, facts and bodies of knowledge impairs sound decision-making processes, often leading to irrational, flawed and hasty decisions.
NGOs, who have devoted their lives to studying various aspects in depth, have an open process characterized by freedom of thinking, eagerness for information, and independence from vested interests. Scientific information is valued, brought in by groups like The International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation, (http://www.inesap.org), The Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, (http://www.ieer), Physicians for Social Responsibility (http://www.psr.org), and others.
Frozen Accidents
The NPT culture has been driven by political and economic influences. Our global nuclear power system - including institutions, infrastructures - has evolved from what Nobel physicist Murray Gell-Mann calls a Frozen Accident,which begins with an event, say the NPT organized around a central role for the IAEA. It then generates widespread, diverse consequences, bifurcations, deviations and path-dependent processes that are reinforced through positive feedback and result in a "frozen lock-in state" which can dominate an entire system and shape history. The way a path develops is not inevitable and could have turned out differently.
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