- Kathy Byrnes (@KathyM_Byrnes) January 30, 2020Turns out this guy is Ed Fallon, a former Democratic state representative and climate activist who walked and documented the entire Iowa route of the Dakota Access pipeline. He was "shocked" by the encounter, and wrote a response that perfectly captures the Biden problem:
What was even more shocking was how Biden pushed and poked me, and then took hold of my jacket with both hands as he lectured me.
I've said this before, and I'll say it one more time: Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate LEAST likely to beat Donald Trump. His demeanor on the stump will inevitably come back to bite him, perhaps repeatedly. His propensity to violate personal space is a huge non-asset in politics, and his frequent gaffes are prime fodder for opponents and the media.
So front-runner Joe can't exactly be inspiring confidence among the Democratic establishment. More like an electoral disaster percolating before our eyes. Joe Biden is a zombie candidate telling zombie lies. Nothing would be more disastrous for the Democratic Party's anti-Bernie strategy (and nothing seems more inevitable) than an egregious, public Biden meltdown.
As I write, Bernie is now a clear favorite in Iowa and New Hampshire, likely to be coming out of those contests in a couple of weeks with at least one strong win, the lead among diverse swaths of the electorate and a huge cash war chest. He's now leading the polls in California and within 2 points of Biden in Texas in the latest poll. Things will change rapidly, but right now, Bernie has the mo.
Furthermore, the new 15% rule that the Democrats created to advantage to the early frontrunner, whom they never imagined would be Bernie, is now working in his favor. Under that rule, delegates are allocated only to candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote. That is going to make it hard for third-place, and very hard for fourth-place and below finishers to get delegates. The second-string moderates-Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar-are all right now struggling to hit that 15% mark. One New Hampshire poll has nobody y but Bernie over 15%. It will be hard for any candidate who cannot get a single delegate in the first three primaries to stay in the race.
That's not just because it will be hard as an individual to raise money and support, but also because the Party establishment, well aware of Biden's precarity, will be desperate to keep delegates away from Bernie. It will pressure candidates who have shown an inability to reach 15% to get out of the way for someone who can.
But who? One would think they'd settle on Warren, but if she's clearly on a downslide she might actually be the first to go, allowing them to pour money and resources into someone who has been moving up a bit, like Warren's New York Times sister wife, Klobuchar.
Of course, she, or Mayo Pete, is such an obvious dud that they may fall back on clearing everyone else out and hope Michael Bloomberg, as the third candidate (presuming Biden hasn't decompensated on national television), can buy 15% of the vote in enough primaries to prevent Bernie amassing a majority of delegates.
Truth is, because all the other candidates are so clearly pandering opportunists and/or dedicated " nothing will fundamentally change" establishmentarians, all of whom will be shredded by tough-talking faux-populist Donald Trump, and because his strongest opponent, Joe Biden, is slipping in the polls and at risk of a meltdown, it is now possible for Bernie Sanders to win a majority of pledged delegates, and it's very possible that he'll win a plurality. Bernie's now a top dog.
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