NC: Well, I think that's true. I think it's extremely reckless and it is driving Russia into an alliance with China that's been a very conflicted relationship for many years -- there's plenty of antagonism, they've almost been at war frequently. But we're driving them together...we're essentially driving Russia into closer integration with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Chinese-based international organization, which has been...it's mainly based on energy interchange, energy access, other commercial access. But some have seen it a potential China-based, kind of NATO-style organization. It includes Siberia, India, Iran as an observer, Pakistan, all the central Asian states, which are big energy producers. The United States wanted to gain observer status but was turned down. It's kind of developing quietly like a lot of Chinese (? growth and?) influence, but its substantial. It may also someday be a currency alternative as Paul suggested. And were driving Russia into closer connections with it, and this is very risky and it does even risk major war. I mean, at this point we are threatening core strategic interests of any Russian government -- can't blame Putin -- it'd be any Russian government, you pick it...they would be deeply concerned about US expansion of NATO, which is a hostile military alliance, right to their heartland. I mean, if the Warsaw Pact were attempting to take over Canada and Mexico, we wouldn't be happy about it. And it's comparable.
There's a very good article on this in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, the main establishment journal, by John Mearsheimer, a well-known IR... international relations specialist. Now this goes back to 1990, the collapse of the Soviet Union, fall of the Berlin wall....collapse of the Soviet Union, right in those years. At that point, Mikhail Gorbachev, who was a real statesman, made an incredible offer. He offered to allow Germany to be unified and to join NATO, a hostile military alliance. You take a look at the history of the last preceding century, that's astonishing. I mean, Germany alone had several times virtually destroyed Russia, even when Russia was supported by western power. Now he was offering to allow Germany to join much...huge western power, far beyond Russia's, in a hostile military alliance. Now he did have a quid pro quo. The phrase was "not one inch to the east." That was the phrase he used together with President Bush, number one, and James Baker, Secretary of State in working out this issue...also Helmut Kohl of Germany. The "one inch to the east" meant East Berlin...East Germany. The condition was that this militarized, united Germany part of NATO would not move to East Germany. Well the Bush Administration quickly moved to East Germany. Gorbachev was outraged, but he was informed that it was only a verbal agreement -- there was nothing on paper...which was correct, there was nothing on paper. And so he had no basis for objecting, well, not very convincing. But anyhow, under Clinton, NATO was expanded much further to the east, way beyond East Germany....right to the borders of Russia.
Now the last step, which we're now facing, is the effort to bring Ukraine into NATO. I mean that's been...now people deny it, but they've been calling for that for years and the Russians can hear it. That's really right at the heart of Russian basic strategic interests as well as historical connections...but we're pushing it. And that's...you know, 'risky' is kind of an understatement. That's laying the basis for what could become a major war -- a nuclear war, which of course destroys everything. And we've come pretty close to that in the past.
If you look at the record of the past years since 1945, it's frightening. It's, even by accident, come very close a number of times. And playing this kind of a risky game is just....I don't know what word to describe it...'suicidal' is, again, an understatement. So I agree, it's very risky in all sorts of ways.
PCR: But Noam, is this due to hubris in Washington? Or are they so determined to have hegemony over the world that they can't think or they don't see the risk? Because it is such a huge risk, you would think people would be attentive and cautious, and yet it seems like they don't even know it's a risk.
NC: Well I think that on the part of the general, you know, sort of foreign policy elite political class, I think they see it as a risk. That's why, I presume, that's why Foreign Affairs, which is the main establishment journal, Council on Foreign Relations, why they ran Mearsheimer's article as in fact their lead article in the last issue -- it's a powerful argument about the risk. But I think Washington, you know, they got their own logic -- we've got to maximize our power, without limits.
PCR: Yeah.
NC: I'm afraid I've got to take off...I've just been informed.
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