With the likely fall of the Alawite-dominated government in Syria, Bahrain's Al Khalifa family will soon be the only sectarian minority in the Middle East ruling over a majority that has little-to-no say in its government. Recent history suggests that, absent sweeping structural changes, the outcome for such an arrangement will not be peaceful reforms, more forceful and public engagement with key leaders, and using multilateral forums to sanction regime infractions.
The goal of all of these efforts should be raising the economic and political costs for hardliners who would block reforms while increasingly, the United States finds itself in the undesirable position of maintaining close ties with a repressive regime that has skillfully avoided meaningful reforms while engaging in a concerted public relations campaign to burnish its image.
Ultimately, breaking through Bahrain's impasse is not just a matter of promoting human rights but mitigating potential security challenges to U.S. assets and people and--eventually, perhaps--forestalling a violent challenge to the monarchy.
Backed by robust Saudi financial and military support, the Bahraini regime may be able to hobble through the current crisis, withstanding extraordinary pressure from both its own citizenry and the international community. But the status quo is not sustainable indefinitely.
With the likely fall of the Alawite-dominated government in Syria, Bahrain's Al Khalifa family will soon be the only sectarian minority in the Middle East ruling over a majority that has little-to-no say in its government. Recent history suggests that, absent sweeping structural changes, the outcome for such an arrangement will not be peaceful.
Other observers have reached similar conclusions. In a separate report published in the Washington Post, Stephen McInerney, executive director of POMED (the Project on Middle East Democracy) quoted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, She said:
"Our challenge in a country like Bahrain," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said last November, is that the United States "has many complex interests. We'll always have to walk and chew gum at the same time." The growing problem is that the United States does plenty of "walking" -- maintaining our strategic alliance with the Gulf kingdom in the short term -- but little or no "chewing," or taking meaningful steps to spur the political reforms needed to preserve Bahrain as an ally in the long term.
In recent weeks, Bahrain's government has banned demonstrations of any size and upheld lengthy prison sentences given to teachers and medics for expressing their political views. It continues to crack down violently against daily protests. Washington has repeatedly expressed "concern" about the state of human rights in Bahrain, but it is increasingly clear that such statements have little or no impact.
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