Even before the BICI report was commissioned, Bahrain hired some of the most high-powered New York public relations firms to keep us all informed about how well things were going and the substantial number of the report's recommendations were actually being implemented. This reporter can affirm that many follow-up questions to the press office from journalists went unanswered.
A lot of the pushback against "political reform by press release" came from the daughter and one of the sisters of arguably the country's leading human rights defenders. Both were imprisoned by the government, the father for a life sentence. The un-jailed daughter was working from outside Bahrain. She was trying with limited resources to match the blizzard of press releases launched into the in-boxes of Western journalists.
And Carnegie's Frederic Wehrey writes,
"And while assessments of the Royal Family's commitment to genuine, comprehensive reform continue, those doing the assessing have been unable to transparently provide evidence to support such claims and allow access for outside observers to confirm such claims independently."
He adds, "They have been unable to produce meaningful reforms through dialogue or political participation, the mainstream Shia opposition represented by Al Wefaq is losing popular support. The youth are rising up. The February 14 Youth Coalition--a leaderless network formed in the early days of Bahrain's uprising--is winning over some of Al Wefaq's supporters. It has rejected dialogue with the regime, called for the creation of a republic, and confronted security forces with sporadic violence.
A hardline faction of the Al Khalifa family, led by the royal court minister and the commander of the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF), is drowning out more moderate voices. Class-based Sunni anger with the regime is rising. Hardline royal factions have attempted to co-opt this dissent and redirect it against the Shia--a losing strategy that is stoking sectarianism in Bahraini society.
Anti-Americanism is growing among both hardline Sunni Islamists and rejectionist Shia elements. This anti-Americanism coupled with the entrenched regime's apparent intent to ignore calls for deep reform risks damaging American legitimacy and jeopardizing U.S. assets and people.
America needs to "Rethink the long-standing U.S. defense relationship with Bahrain. The relationship may soon become a liability given the stalemate on reform, endemic violence, and mounting anti-Americanism."
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