Article originally published in the Detroit News
If you don't have the voters, you can't win the votes.
By Robert Weiner and Ting Cui
Amidst the Democrats' circular firing squads seeking whom to blame for their election loss, a more foundational issue has emerged: for the first time in modern electoral history, the Democratic Party registered fewer new voters than the Republicans ahead of the 2024 election. This was a fundamental failure that based on the sheer numbers likely cost Democrats the presidency. This was especially true in critical swing states like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada-- all of which the Republicans captured.
This was the first election in our lifetimes where Republicans outpaced Democrats in registering new voters nationally. Democrats previously held that advantage, but let it slip away this time around.
The national number of registered voters in the 2024 election was roughly 161.4 million (64%), down from 168.3 million (66%) in 2020. According to the University of Florida's Election Lab, 245 million people were eligible to vote, but close to 90 million did not. While Republicans executed a focused ground game, Democrats concentrated on turning out existing voters rather than expanding their base. Tapping into this pool could have potentially offset any Democratic losses due to voters switching parties and others staying home.
Nowhere was this more evident than in Michigan, where Kamala Harris lost by just 80,000 votes despite record turnout. A more aggressive Democratic registration drive targeting the remaining 300,000 unregistered eligible voters in Michigan could have changed the election's outcome. There's no guarantee that those registered voters would have voted for Harris, but you can't win at all if you don't have the votes.
This registration deficit played out across every battleground state though. In Arizona, Democrats lost 2 points of their registration advantage while Republicans captured more new voters in a 5% surge in voter rolls. Nevada saw a 22% jump in registered voters, with Republicans gaining an 8% share while Democrats lost 4%. In North Carolina, Democrats' registration advantage shrunk from 6 points to just 1 point (31%-30%)
In analyzing the numbers, the Democrats' strategy seemed misaligned.
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