Inarguably, Russia has lost its war in Ukraine, but it probably does not yet realize it. Nevertheless, the rest of the world IS beginning to notice. Despite mainstream media essays asserting that sanctions are self-defeating, will not work, will rile the Russian citizenry to reaction, and will drive the West financially into recession, those authors miss the point. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that the world can get along without Russia, its fossil fuel, its criminal oligarchs, its meddling in domestic politics, its hackers, and its annoying bullying.
Putin might want to turn back the clock to the good ole days of total information control at the hands of the Stasi, KGB, and USSR, but Soviet countries globally now realize that a) Russia abandoned them in 1991, and b) their economies might do better without Russia. Bulgaria is even demonstrably trying to crack down on its post-USSR corruption - something Russia has failed to do. So, what does Russia really offer the world besides cheap gas that gives Russia leverage over their countries?
Today, MIT Technology Review published an online essay on the "Splinternet" in reference to the fact that in order for Putin to control all news, Russia has isolated itself from the rest of the world information and communication-wise; not just financially. It is reminiscent of Stasi activities in Dresden (Putin's old spying grounds) where one could not connect a call until a government agent was available to listen in, and most radio and TV was controlled by Russia.
Disconnected from the global Internet communication systems, all countries can now see and communicate more clearly now that Russian gaslight has been silenced. Disconnected from the global economic and financial systems, all countries cab now quantify how dependent they are or are not on Russia.
Ignoring UN demands for ceasefires and withdrawals, Russia is making itself a moral pariah in the view of many countries. Some Western writers have spun Russia's Ukraine invasion by pointing to moral equivalency with invasions by the USA also without provocation. Conceptually and morally they are correct. Mountains of books have pointed out that nearly all Post-WWII US and Russian invasions have been unjustified. Regrettably, millions of innocents have suffered at the hands of both Russia and the USA. But unlike the impact of of the Ukraine invasion on Russia, never did America's military adventures abroad call into question its membership in nor relevance to the global community, and that is the crux of my point.
It will be up to the Russian people to determine if isolationism is preferable to globalism.
