Despite the fact that the declared and true goals of politicians in Ukraine are different, it becomes obvious that the Ukrainian war has lost its meaning. Because one of the parties to the conflict has already achieved strategic goals.
Protecting the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine is only Putin's declared goal. In fact, the Russian president sets himself a more global goal. This goal is so big that in the shadow of this goal, the results of the war in Ukraine lose all meaning for Putin. Everything that is most important for this person happens outside of Ukraine. All these important events have already happened.
Putin as it is
Strategic goal: Creation of a multipolar world
Methods: Creating conditions under which Western Democracies will discredit themselves and lose influence
Means: War in Ukraine*
Putin offered the Western Democracies a conflict of such great intensity that the Western Democracies cannot effectively participate in this conflict. The internal policy of Western Democracies does not allow the mass death of voters or even a significant deterioration in their standard of living. But Russia's internal policy allows this. Russians can die in hundreds of thousands and live poorly for a long time! This is exactly what is required to participate in a long-term, high-intensity conflict.
An ally of Western Democracies, Ukraine is in the same position as Russia. Ukraine is experiencing massive loss of population and worsening living conditions. But since Ukraine's potential is less than Russia's, Ukraine will not be able to participate in the confrontation with Russia for a long time. Already, the potential for resistance of Ukrainians is almost exhausted. The reluctance of Ukrainians to serve in the Army is a recognized fact. Mobilization problems prove that Ukrainian society no longer ready to participate in high-intensity conflicts.
Western Democracies, due to the specifics of domestic politics, cannot provide effective assistance to Ukraine. Attempts to confront Russia without taking risks, without spending a lot of money, without creating big problems for voters led to the opposite effect. Because the high-intensity conflict created by Putin requires a completely different model of behavior. As a result, Western democracies discredited themselves and lost influence. During the two years of conflict, Putin achieved the following tactical victories. Presented in the table.
The World and Western Democracies
As we see, all of Putin's tactical victories are mistakes of politicians representing Western Democracies. Putin studied the history of the actions of Western Democracies and created the conditions under which these actions are carried out especially actively but without a victorious result. Western Democracies have fallen into a trap. A huge arsenal of dubious political decisions has been used. However, this did not bring victory over Russia. This allowed the international community to evaluate the actions of Western Democracies.
This happened for the first time. After all, Western Democracies have won before! And as we know, the winners are not judged. But now everything is different. The Western Democracies did not win. And now the world can speculate about the events taking place more objectively. And this objectivity is not on the side of Western Democracies! Putin achieved its strategic goal. The influence of the Western Democracies has been questioned and greatly reduced.
This can lead to feelings of mistrust, anger, or even the desire to commit a criminal offense. But we need to admit the truth. Putin won the war in Ukraine even before he started the war. Western Democracies themselves destroyed the civilization they created.
What's next?
In the current situation, Western Democracies need to recognize the new reality. It is necessary to act with the understanding that the world is no longer unipolar. In order to survive we will need more effort than before!
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