None of us knows what will happen election night, 2024. But if I were in Las Vegas and could make a bet on the outcome, I would bet Donald Trump would not be on the ballot.
Many observers look at his lead in the polls and are certain he will be the Republican nominee for president. I am not one of those people.
As 2023 progresses and 2024 right behind it, Donald Trump will spend a lot of time in the courtroom. He will be in front of judges and grand juries multiple times in the coming months. He has 91 felony charges against him and we can expect many more.
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The evidence against him is overwhelming. Trump has lied and cheated in every business or political venture he has ever undertaken. His lawyers are unable to mount a credible defense. He could mount a defense of his own in court, but doesn't have the ability to do so. If he spoke during his trial, his lawyers would have a fit. They know he would dig himself a deeper hole.
As popular as he is with his base, as the election draws nearer, Republicans would have to wonder about the value of a potential or real criminal representing their party. Besides that, he has begun saying more bizarre and crazy things as the pressure mounts on him. He has already begun to repeat more absurb, unhinged complaints and irrational attacks on his prosecutors. Potential voters will start noticing his rapid mental breakdown. I suspect the ex-president's polls will gradually decline, especially if one of his GOP opponents looks electable.
But we know Trump does not give up easily or at all. However, as it appears all his legal troubles are mounting and the possibility of going to jail becomes more likely, he has displayed obvious signs of fear.
Under those circumstances, the Justice Department might welcome a way out of their own difficult position. Most likely, Attorney General Merrick Garland recoils at the idea of sending a former President of the United States to prison. As much as Trump deserves that fate, there is no knowing how his millions of his MAGA cult-like followers might react. The potential for violence from his angriest supporters is something to be concerned about.
That is when Merrick Garland could play his trump card, so to speak. He might be willing to present the ex-president an opportunity to avoid prison time. Being behind bars is no doubt terrifying to Trump. But if he accepts a plea deal from the government that would guarantee that he avoids prison time, that would be the best realistic outcome for Trump, his lawyers, his family, and his supporters.
Of course, there will be a cost that will be hard for Trump to stomach.To avoid spending time in prison, he would have to agree to no longer run for public office, including for president.
The Justice Department would have to get Trump's prosecutors in other jurisdictions to back that plea deal and not sentence Trump for his many other crimes. For the good of the country--and assuming the legalities would be worked out--it is likely they will agree, knowing the dangerous consequences of Trump potentially becoming president again. They would see that accepting the plea bargain would be the smart and patriotic thing to do and spare the country from certain upheaval if the former president were sent to prison.
I expect Trump would agree to the plea bargain. Spending time in prison would be frightening to him and would be further proof of his crimes. It would be the last thing he would want for himself. Trump will see the benefits of agreeing to the plea deal. Remember, this is the guy who claims to have written "The Art of the Deal".
The country would benefit from precluding the possibility of him becoming the leader of the country. He would still be allowed to spout out the garbage he posts on his social media site and would still have access to the media. He might be able to live with that.
Naturally I can't guarantee such a plea deal will come about, but that would be where my money would go in Las Vegas. I think the plea deal should and will happen. It would save the United States the prolonged nightmare of a vicious and divisive election, and the possibility of re-electing this anti-democratic, authoritarian, ego-driven man. Both pro- and anti-Trump camps will be disappointed they won't get what they want, but it would be best for the future of our divided and insecure nation.
