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Providing information and insights to world decision-makers, Stratfor's CEO George Friedman examined the effect of Israel's attack, calling it "unprecedented in size" for an assault of this kind, citing three factors differentiating it:
-- over 600 foreign nationals were involved, including politicians and journalists, "raising the stakes for all players;"
-- the incident drew unprecedented media attention and preparation; immediately, "pre-arranged interviews with various pro-Palestinian representatives were filling regional media such as Al Jazeera" and others (but not in America where they're banned); world protests erupted, calling for accountability and sanctions against Israel; and
-- "Most importantly, a non-Arab foreign state played a role in instigating this incident. Turkey has been feeling its way forward in the region," trying to increase its political stature through "new tools of influence." Its government "did everything it could to benefit from the public relations that a successful breaching of the blockade would generate."
In addition, because of Israel's "direct action, a web of international relationships will be affected," and Turkey can leverage the incident by "providing military escorts (for) future aid flotillas that could increase in size" and further heighten tensions if Israeli recklessness continues.
Already, Middle East instability has increased, "the last thing" America needs with more than enough on its plate. In addition, Washington-Tel Aviv relations are affected, at least overtly as well as Israel's Western and regional relationships. Fumbling a "military action against a civilian convoy....is something that works directly against American policies."
Given what's happened and world outrage, "the issue has....shifted from a military question to a political one." Key ahead is how Israel, Washington and Ankara will react, besides the potential effect on other world governments, given growing demands for accountability and mass public calls for action.
Friedman discounts the idea that the commandos used "paintballs" in the attack, calling them "training rounds" not likely to be used during a mission of this sort, especially on a ship with over 600 activists. Claiming it flies in the face of up to 20 killed and many more wounded, Friedman added:
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