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Twelve, the incumbent party candidate is charismatic.
Donald Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of the American people, and as a result, false.
13, the challenger, is uncharismatic.
Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he's not inspirational or charismatic. So true.
That means.
The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House."
Paul Jay
Thanks for joining us, Alan.
Allan Lichtman
My great pleasure.
Paul Jay
So let's talk about the current situation and then I've got some history questions for you. So you predicted Biden's going to win this election, but does this fight over the Supreme Court move one of your predictive keys?
Paul Jay
No, absolutely not. Nothing matters in my system, as you say, unless it turns a key. That's why I don't look at the polls. I forget about the pundits. I don't see who's up and down on a day to day basis. I don't pay attention to the speeches, the debates, the ads, the dirty tricks. Unless it moves a key, it doesn't matter.
And the keys are very high threshold factors. They are the big picture of presidential performance and strength. Now, stepping outside the keys, it just popped up an hour ago on my screen here, a post-ABC poll released today says 38% want the replacement to be nominated by Trump and confirmed by the current Senate, 57 percent say it should be left to the winner of the election and confirmed by the Senate next year. So this notion that this is going to be a big shot in the arm to the Trump campaign, like so much else you hear, just has no basis.
Paul Jay
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