"The antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity. First, many of the antibody tests are "extremely unreliable" and rely on hard-to-achieve representative groups. But more important, many people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don't show up on antibody tests - either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities to related coronaviruses such as the common cold.
The implications of this are profound - it means that when we hear results from antibody tests the percentage who test positive for antibodies is not necessarily equal to the percentage who have immunity or resistance to the virus. The true number could be much higher. Observing the very similar patterns of the epidemic across countries around the world has convinced Professor Gupta that it is this hidden immunity, more than lockdowns or government interventions, that offers the best explanation of the Covid-19 progression:
"In almost every context we've seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away - almost like clockwork. Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we've observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour which is highly consistent with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the build-up of immunity. I think that's a more parsimonious explanation than one which requires in every country for lockdown (or various degrees of lockdown, including no lockdown) to have had the same effect."
Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, "I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000." That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%". ("Sunetra Gupta: Covid-19 is on the way out", unherd.com)
Gupta makes a important point, but it needs to be better explained. If, for example, "just 7.3 percent of Stockholm residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies at the end of April", that does not mean that only 7.3% of Stockholm residents are immune. No. Some people have an innate immunity (due to their genetic makeup) or have "existing immunities" linked to prior infections like Sars. Gupta believes that immunity is more widespread than is evident by the results of antibody tests. This suggests that the percentage of Stockholm residents that are immune could be much greater than we think. Given the virulence of the infection, as well as the interaction of the city's population, Stockholm could be very close to herd immunity already. The decline in "new cases" strongly suggests that immunity is blocking the spread of the pathogen which means the virus is gradually dying out. If that's what is currently taking place, then Sweden will likely be spared a "second wave" of the pandemic.
Sweden's Economy; Not so hot
Sweden's economy is expected to contract at a rate that is comparable to that of its neighbors. . Check out this excerpt from an article at NPR:
"Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home".Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, provided two potential scenarios for the country's economic outlook in 2020.
"Despite the comprehensive measures both in Sweden and abroad, the economic consequences of the pandemic will be considerable. The consequences for the economy will vary depending on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place," the Riksbank said in a statement in April.
Both scenarios predict a rise in unemployment rate and a contraction of the country's gross domestic product. The central bank expects unemployment to rise from 6.8% to 10.1% and GDP to shrink by up to 9.7% this year as result of the pandemic." ("Sweden won't reach herd immunity in May", NP R)
Bottom line: Sweden is going to face a deep recession just like the countries that implemented harsher measures. So what was gained by bucking the trend?
Maybe nothing, but I expect it will be much easier and less costly for Sweden to gear-up to full capacity than any of the lockdown states. And Sweden will not have to deal with disruptive shutdowns due to sporadic outbreaks like we've seen recently in Germany, South Korea and China. In fact, this could be a recurrent problem in countries that put their hopes in contact tracing or quarantines. In contrast, Sweden bet the farm on old-fashioned immunity developed through controlled exposure of younger, low-risk people who strengthened their own natural defenses by interacting with their friends and families as they normally would. It's clear, they made the only sensible choice.
Sweden has shown that it's possible to counter a deadly pandemic and preserve personal freedom at the same time. They alone have triumphed where others have failed.
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