Later, on October 21 in the network there was a message from the political scientist Anatoly Nesmiyan known as El Murid. He writes:
"A column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine moved through the village of Marinka Kurakhovo toward the direction of Donetsk, the Capital of the Donetsk People's Republic. There are an endless stream of tanks, moving under conditions of minimal lighting, so as to make difficult determining the composition of the column. It is known, however, that a part of the convoy consists of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and trucks with infantry and ammunition."
According to him, the renewed attack by security forces of Kiev who are surrounded at Donetsk airport is just a red herring to distract militias -- and the most combat-ready units. Toward the same goal is that Government's stuffing Ukrainian media with misinformation saying that the Prime Minister of the Donetsk Novorossian Republic Alexander Zaharchenko is violating the ceasefire.
More recently, experts said that the Ukrainian army is on the verge of defeat. The fact is that the combat effectiveness and morale in it are extremely low.
And now again we hear that an offensive is being prepared for a three-day blitzkrieg that might call into question the very existence of New Russia. How likely is such a scenario?
- Such a scenario is not excluded. The editor in chief of "National Defense" Igor Korochenko says that the War Party in Kiev has a strong position. He says that the objective will be to distract Ukrianians from the pressing problems associated with the winter period, if the Kiev government can suddenly launch an attack and crush Novorossia by their armored columns.
"SP": - After the August offensive our militias said that technically speaking, the Ukrainian army had suffered heavy losses
This loss is now recharged. Supplies have gone to Ukraine from those countries that had been in the Soviet bloc, where there still remained the old Soviet equipment. Besides, Kiev urgently refilled a number of warehouses with heavy weapons.
Defeated army units are now being re-formed. So in general, Ukraine retains certain military capabilities.
"SP": - Is the plan for taking only 2-3 days to enter Donetsk and hold a large part of it realistic?
- I do not think so. Blitzkrieg is hardly possible. The level of militants' organization compared with the beginning of the war has increased significantly. Commanders of Novorossia units are in overall control of the situation.
Meanwhile, a new wave of offensive Ukrainian law enforcers will surely lead to new large losses among the civilian population. Kiev did not bother to meet the requirements of the Geneva Conventions. They behave as invaders in the Donbass. They consider the local population as a hostile ethnic group itself.
"SP": - How do you assess the military potential of the militia of New Russia? Whether it is capable not only to repel the assault, but also to counter-attack to make whole at least the territory of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions?
- The Army of New Russia is capable of holding those areas that it now controls. But to say that in the current state it could successfully attack on Kiev -- that's naive. They'd need to do a lot more to have a real Novorossia army on a professional basis. Without this, co-existence with Ukraine will be impossible. The future will show what happens next.
- It is clear that at the time of the armistice, both sides wanted to continue the war, says the head of the analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Hramchihin. The Minsk agreements were signed under external pressure from Russia and Europe. [Obama, the U.S., wasn't even mentioned in this context.] At the same time, both sides believe that victory was stolen from them, and want to continue the war.
Thus, except for Blitzkrieg, Ukraine now cannot arrange anything. If you get involved in protracted battles, on the eve of the winter, it may be a very sad end in Kiev for the current regime.
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