22 October 2014 12:13, Gevorg Mirzayan
List of parties who would go to the parliament, already roughly defined. The absolute leader in all polls is Block Poroshenko - for it are ready to vote a little less than 30%. But then the results of surveys differ. In general, it turns out that in addition to the parliament Poroshenko just passes the "People's Front", "Citizenship", "Radical Party", "Fatherland" and "Strong Ukraine". Chance to overcome the entrance barrier is the Communists, nationalists of "Freedom" and some other parties.
This election authorities position almost as the most important in the history of Ukraine, and at the same time claim that Moscow is trying every way to thwart them. For example, the SBU said the exposure in Kiev, the whole of the Russian underground terrorist organization, which was to make a series of terrorist attacks on election day (the explosion of the aircraft at the airport, "Juliani" morning of October 26, the Central Election Commission building fire and the Cabinet on the night of 25th to 26th of October). In turn, Moscow these statements is not even denies - the last time these dubious charges from Kiev was so much that the Russian authorities have simply stopped paying attention to them. Instead, Russia is trying to focus on the possible outcome of the elections and their consequences.
For example, Russian officials have said that the results of the elections recognize, but no breakthrough solutions to the new composition of Parliament do not wait. "If the elections will lead to a stabilization of not only political, but also in the ruling circles, the government will create a predictable, which can be dealt with, will be able to lead to an increase in the degree of efficiency of the Ukrainian authorities - while they carry out their task," - said the head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the State Duma Alexei Pushkov, knowing full well that these items are implemented they are not likely.
On the one hand it may seem that the Kremlin's skepticism was not warranted. Judging by the polls, the outspoken radicals of "Freedom" and "The Right Sector", which was irritating the Russian public and positioned as the main radical forces of Ukraine, in the election, seems to fail. Seemingly confirmed by the statements of the political scientists and journalists who claimed that Ukraine extreme views in the Ukraine are not supported.However, in reality, there is probably another. Neither the "Freedom", let alone "right sector" and could not become systemic and political forces to play by the rules. Their rate for ultra-did not work, not because the Ukraine in their ideology no storoonnikov, but just because one or another form of the elements of their political discourse used by other Ukrainian politicians and the media. Including parties and politicians from the ruling coalition - from Poroshenko to Yulia Tymoshenko, against which "Freedom" and "Right sector" look rather than patriots and amateurs populist.
That dominance in the political arena of Ukraine extreme settings can be an obstacle for the effective operation of the future composition of the Verkhovna Rada. In fact, before the deputies will be the most difficult task, perhaps the most difficult for all 20 years of the existence of an independent Ukraine. There is a civil war, the economy is teetering on the brink of default, the oligarchs concentrated in their powerful resources of power, relations with its eastern neighbor spoiled. These tasks can not be considered unenforceable, but their solution requires innovative solutions and sober, what's even the revisionist approach. In particular, Kiev must stop and lustration campaign to deepen the split in society, to take a course on the restoration of relations with Moscow to abandon tough anti-Russian rhetoric. However, members of this step are unlikely, because otherwise not included in the Rada radicals parliamentarians call traitors and with the acquiescence of the public subjected to their "people's lustration."
The stability in the future government, too, can not speak. Yes, with the formation of the coalition problems likely will not. Popular Front for the same does not refuse to work with Peter Poroshenko and ready to enter into a coalition. "I am confident that we will have enough representatives of the democratic forces to form a majority without those who have worked with Yanukovych, without those who voted for the dictatorial laws on January 16," - said one of the leaders of the NF, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov. President generally plans to gather under his wing a constitutional majority. However, following the establishment of the coalition may have traditional aspects associated with the sharing of portfolios, the struggle for power and cash flows, questions about the still not completed postmaydannogo redistribution of property. Instability in the ruling elite will enhance the running of the country civil war and the issues connected with it. So, on the table the new composition of the Verkhovna Rada will form the final report formed the current composition of the special commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian armed forces under Illovayskom. It is likely to be found guilty Poroshenko and his inner circle. It is possible that some MPs will try to use the findings of this report to the weakening of the position of the president.
In this situation, the president can consolidate public opinion at the expense of a new stage of TAU - and it is also very concerned about Moscow, which has only just managed to freeze going on Ukraine civil war. Analysts write that over the past week, the Ukrainian army concentrated at the front lines considerable force. However, it is clear that in the winter to keep them there can not be. Therefore, the president has just a few weeks to decide: either he throws those troops on the blitzkrieg, or takes them to the place of permanent or temporary dislocation in the winter quarters. Moscow regards as credible both versions of events, especially after Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko and failed to find a compromise in Milan, and the issue of gas supplies to Ukraine podvis due to the fact that Kiev for its purchase and payment accumulated the debt is simply no money. That is why, according to some reports, the Kremlin is ready for any development of the situation. And if Poroshenko really begin the offensive after the elections to the parliament, it is not excluded that the new year will be welcomed militia already in Slavic and Mariupol. expert.ru
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Kiev is preparing to capture Donetsk, and [if successful] it will be the biggest defeat for Russia since 1991
22.10.2014 12:24
Former Defense Minister DNR Igor Gunmen [Igor Strelkov, Igor Girkin] today, 22 October, made a statement on the current military situation in the Donbas, the correspondent of IA REGNUM.
"At the moment to me a continuous flow of information about preparing the coming offensive of armed forces of Ukraine and gangs of so-called" National Guard "to Donetsk. In recent days, the enemy sharply intensified activities of their intelligence groups, as well as artillery strikes against militias, residential areas and industrial enterprises. Massively used heavy multiple rocket launchers, heavy artillery and tactical missiles "Tochka-U". Civilian victims during the so-called "truce" have been higher than those in the period of active hostilities months ago. Two forces of the enemy, having clearly offensive configuration, aimed at DNR capital from the north-west and south-west. Third, concentrated in the area Debalcevo, can strike at the miners or deeper - at Red Ray and anthracite to go to the border with Russia through the least covered by the host of the DNI and LC areas and immediately bring it under control, cutting off all supplies from the militia. If all assets collected by the Ukrainian side will be simultaneously and aggressively thrown into battle, the numerically small, poorly armed and poorly managed part of the militia without direct Russian assistance would be quickly defeated and the New Russia will cease to exist as soon as the people," he said.
"Based on the available data at my disposal, as well as information and analysis of competent experts, I predict that the attack of Ukrainian troops will be primarily aimed at the capture of the city of Donetsk and directly MAKEEVKA agglomeration which is the largest and most important in the region," emphasizes the former head of the Defense DNR offices.
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