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Prof. Allan Jay Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984. His model says Biden will win the vote in 2020, but he thinks Trump is planning to work with Republican governors and secretaries of state to rig the final result. Only a people's movement on a massive scale can prevent a Trump coup says Paul Jay. Prof. Lichtman is the guest on theAnalysis.news podcast.
Transcript
Paul Jay
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On Saturday, September 26th, Donald Trump nominated Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Will this rush to nominate another far-right judge have an effect on the outcome of the presidential election? I'm going to ask Allan J. Lichtman, an American historian and distinguished professor of history at American University. Alan is the author of many books, including "White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement." Alan created the keys to the White House model, which he developed with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the candidate of an incumbent party will win or lose the next election for the U.S. president. He predicted the outcome of every presidential election since Reagan in 1984, including the 2016 victory of Donald Trump. The New York Times produced a video about Alan which explains the 13 Keys. Here's an excerpt from their video.
New York Times Video
"What do Allan's 13 keys predict for 2020?
And remember and answer of true always favors the re-election of the White House party. If six or more of the keys are false, you get a political earthquake.
OK, number one, the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections.
Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018. So false.
Number two, there is no primary contest for the White House party.
No Republicans challenged Trump for his renomination. So true.
Number three, the incumbency key. The sitting president is running for re-election.
Doesn't look like he's stepping down so true.
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